Wednesday brings us our 3rd straight day of Group A from ESL Pro League. It’s another 3 game slate with lock at 7:30 am EDT again. The games are:
Astralis (91% implied win probability) vs Bad News Bears
Spirit (54%) vs Ence
Heroic (52%) vs Vitality
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Allu, Alter, and Xyp9x (unless Astralis makes a roster change, they are the first game this time so news should be out before lock) are not playing. Everyone else is despite any Draftkings injury designations.
It’s Astralis’ turn to beat up on the Bad News Bears. They’re at least mostly priced up, Bubzkji is cheap and Glaive is moderately priced. Expect them to be the chalkiest plays on Astralis. We may see Magisk with some decently low ownership, as he’s the most expensive player on the slate. I like him, Dupreeh, and Lucky for GPPs and will likely come in light on Bubz.
On the other side, Junior is so cheap that maybe a couple of one-offs are worth looking at if you MME. I mentioned this before day 1, but Junior’s role is much better than his role for Furia was. Of course, if his team gets steamrolled it’s hard for him to afford an AWP that often. But if they keep it close and Junior gets to 50ish that could be all you need from him. I won’t be stacking BNB.
The other two games are basically coinflips. I think it’s important to note that in situations like this, the “favorite’ almost always has ownership tilted way too far towards their side. I expect this will be true in the Spirit game, Ence are a strong play. Everyone except Snappi are good plays, Doto in particular is far too cheap.
Ownership in the Heroic/Vitality game will be very interesting. Heroic are ever so slight favorites, but Zywoo effect. The Zywoo effect, for anyone not familiar, is how Zywoo sucks up all the ownership around him. His opponents are almost always lower owned than they should be. I’d expect that to be true here for Heroic as well. Ownership will likely go Zywoo > Heroic > rest of Vitality. I like Vitality stacks a lot, and I like Heroic for GPPs. Refrezh finally broke out of his slump on Tuesday while Sjuush was terrible, that will likely lead to a few points of ownership shifting towards Refrezh. I like both guys as cheap plays, as Sjuush’s 0-9 first half on Inferno while his team won 10 rounds was an extreme outlier that will probably never happen again.
I think there’s enough value on this slate that we can go with mostly studs at captain. Everyone besides Mir is reasonably priced from the Spirit/Ence game, and everyone besides Teses is fairly inexpensive in the Heroic/Vitality game. I like Spinx and Hades a lot, as like I mentioned above Ence should be the most under-owned team on the slate.
I would expect Magisk and Mir to have very low ownership at cpt because of how expensive they are, particularly relative to Zywoo, I like them both in GPPs. Zywoo himself is of course always a strong play, and he’s as cheap as he ever is at only $8.6k. I’ll certainly have a good portion of exposure to him.
You can also go cheap at captain and load up with studs in the rest of your lineup. Doto is cheap with strong upside, and Bubzkji is also a fine option at captain. Just be aware with Bubz that he’s probably going to get a decent amount of ownership, so differentiate somewhere else in your lineup.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!