The day we have all been waiting for is here! Its finally the start of ESL One Cologne. We have a huge 6 game slate to start of the tournament, with 4 EU games plus 2 NA. The games are:
BiG (80% implied win probability) vs Sprout
NiP (61%) vs OG
Vitality (82%) vs Heretics
Fnatic (51%) vs Astralis
Furia (80%) vs Chaos
100 Thieves (57%) vs Gen.G
The only team with notable roster changes is Astralis, as they are now playing with Device, Dupreeh, Magisk, Bubzkji, and es3tag. Hopefully the break has given this new roster time to gel and they can reclaim their spot as a top team in the world.
Before I dive in to the specifics, I wanted to share a few thoughts on the 6 game slate size. We’ve ever only seen a few slates of this size, but 3 stacking becomes worse and worse as the slates get bigger. I already don’t play 3 stacks on 4 game slates, but I know plenty of people do. I would definitely not play any 3 stacks on a 6 game slate. If I am MME’ing I am likely to only force 1 2 stack into my lineups (aka a 2-1-1-1-1 unless a 2nd 2 stack occurs naturally). Smaller field (aka the $333) I’ll probably still run a 2-2-2 or 2-2-1-1. Stacking makes it easier to “hit” on a lineup, you need to correctly predict less different outcomes, but the ceiling isn’t quite as high, as it’s hard for multiple players on 1 team to really go off in the same matchup.
Any time he’s on a slate the first player you should look at is Zywoo. Is his salary under $12k or so? If yes click the lock button on him…I’m kidding but only kinda. He is $10.6k, the highest on the slate sure, but reasonably close to the other top players. The difference between Zywoo and the other top players though, is astounding. He averages .96 fantasy points per round over the last 3 months, no one else on the slate averages over .83 (and that is jks, not even someone else priced near 10k). That is a massive gap, and until Zywoo is priced like he should be, substantially higher than anyone else unless S1mple is on the slate, he will be the best high priced option. I am hoping that all the other high priced options will garner some attention and Zywoo at relatively “low” ownership, which for him would mean like 30-40%.
Jks is also severely underpriced at only $8.0k. He projects for the second most points on the slate in our projections, and as I’ve already mentioned averages the 2nd most fantasy points per round over the last 3 months on the slate. He’ll undoubtedly be high owned, but there are plenty of other ways to differentiate in our lineups with all the options on the slate.
One of those ways to differentiate is with OG. As fairly large underdogs, they should come in pretty low owned. They looked good overall at Dreamhack (even if Mantuu did look off) and I don’t think they should be as big of underdogs against NiP as they are. NiP have been wildly inconsistent all season and could very easily lose this matchup. I particularly like Issa at only $5400. He was OG’s second best player in terms of fantasy points per round during Dreamhack, yet for some reason is priced the lowest on their team Tuesday, all the way down at $5.4k. I’ll happily use him as a one off as he can do well relative to his salary even in a (close) loss.
I will also have a bit of exposure to the Sprout players, they should go virtually unowned on this slate. To my knowledge they have not been on a DK slate yet (I have admittedly missed some earlier this summer) and based on that and the odds I assume people will think they are completely outclassed by BiG. Don’t get me wrong, I definitely think BiG is better and a BiG win is the most likely outcome, but I think Sprout should at least keep this close and it’s worth pointing out they did beat BiG the last time these teams met back in May.
It’s also worth noting the Fnatic are priced like underdogs against Astralis when they are in fact (very slight) favorites in the matchup. I’ll have plenty of Krimz and Brollan in particular in this spot.
Astralis and BiG are definitely overpriced Tuesday, but that actually makes them interesting GPP plays. If Device or any of the BiG 3 headed monster can outscore Zywoo you could pass a huge portion of the field by having them in your lineup instead of Zywoo.
Zywoo’s captain ownership will be interesting on Tuesday. Most of the “value I expect people to be on is in the 7k range, which still doesn’t really allow you to fit Zywoo captain, so his captain ownership may stay under 20%. Whatever the ownership number ends up being, I plan on having more.
I‘m very interested to see where jks’ captain ownership comes in. If it’s 5-8% I like the play a lot and would be over the field, if it’s ~15% I’d be inclined to stay under the field.
If you believe in Astralis I like either Device or Bubzjki at captain slot from them. Both are capable of putting up the top score on the slate if Zywoo doesn’t react his ceiling.
I’ll also have a bit of Yuurih in my captain slot. I didn’t mention Furia above because I think they’re accurately priced and should garner reasonable ownership. I do like Yuurih’s upside here he’ll be my captain of choice from Furia.
Brollan captain makes for an interesting pivot off of jks and I’ll have a few lineups with him in my captain slot. If Astralis still struggles after the break Brollan could have a huge day.
Lastly, I like Issa as a cheap captain. Going Issa in the captain slot allows you to really load up the rest of your lineup, and if Issa can put up 70 he could be the optimal captain on the slate (or close to it).
Good luck on Tuesday! Should be a fun slate.