Monday is the one day between Dreamhack and ESL, but Draftkings has blessed us with an actually pretty nice 4 game slate from Nine to Five. Anyone who continued playing on Draftkings during the “player break” should be familiar with most of these teams, although as usually players are constantly shifting in and out of rosters. I won’t try to keep track of the recent changes but if you go to look at historic matchups, double check that the players were at least mostly the same. The 4 games are:
Avez (75% implied win probability) vs Singularity
Fate (66%) vs Izako Boars
Nordavind (56%) vs SKADE
Forze (80%) vs Copenhagen Flames
One quick player note about Copenhagen Flames, is that this is basically an entirely new team from back in March/April. When DK CS:GO first came out Copenhagen was frequently featured, but that was a much better (on paper) roster than the current squad. Don’t let name value alone pull you onto Copenhagen.
Forze are the “sure thing” on the slate Monday. They just played in the Dreamhack open so DFS players are familiar with them, and they did decently there, taking a map off Complexity in a competitive series, beating Spirit, and losing 2 close maps to OG. Plus, they are the biggest favorite on the slate and are priced right alongside the other favorites. I expect ownership on them to be sky high in this spot both in the flex and in the captain. While I do expect them to win, if I learned one thing from the Nine to Five and Malta Vibes type tournaments during the player break, it’s that literally anything can happen in them. Forze dropped a best of 1 just over a week ago to Nordavind (in overtime), so it’s not like they are a full head and shoulders above the talent level in this tournament. Everyone on Copenhagen Flames has at least played on other teams at roughly the same level, so it’s not like anyone is completely making their pro debut. I’m particularly intrigued by mertz, as he is priced up at $7,800. This should make his ownership virtually non-existent, as he is more expensive than many players on favorites. I’ll definitely have some shares here as if they manage to pull off the upset he could definitely go for a top score on the slate.
Of the favorites tomorrow I think Nordavind is going to be lowest owned. They are priced the highest (with 1 exception, we’ll get to that in a second), while being the smallest favorites. They have just as good of a chance of putting up the top scores on the day as anyone else if they win, and I think the ownership will be too low relative to their upside. I plan on forcing in a good amount of the Nordavind studs, Tenzki in particular. For some reason, fejtZ is the cheapest player on the whole slate, coming in at $4,000. Don’t get me wrong, he has been Nordavind’s lowest scoring fantasy player, but there are 9 players who have scored lower fantasy points per round than him over the last 3 months, 6 of whom play for underdogs, yet they all cost more than fejtZ. Now it’s not quite as simple as locking in the 10x value of his $4k price and calling it a day in tournaments, as the studs are unlikely to get to 10x their salary, so in reality you are looking for more like 55-60 raw points from fejtZ in this spot. That’s definitely within his range of outcomes, especially if they sweep and he gets the 20 points from the 3rd map rounds not played plus sweep bonus. The bigger key to me is that playing fejtZ actually appears that it will be contrarian. SKADE are likely to be super popular on the other side of this matchup as they project well, have good vegas odds, and allow you to get basically any of the other heavy favorites into your lineup. In my preliminary runs (the I run with only a couple of rules to get an idea of where I think the field might land) the optimizer loved SKADE, giving me a ton of Rainwalker and Dennislaw, while giving me almost no fejtZ and Nordavind in general. I think this game is the key to the slate today, and I plan on being heavy on the Nordavind side of it.
For some reason, Fate is not priced up like the other favorites, as their most expensive player (h4rn) tops out at $7.6k. Mar, who arguably their best player (he trails h4rn ever so slightly in fantasy points per round over the past 3 months) is all the way down at $6.6k. I expect that they will be popular, but I still plan on being well over the field here, as I do like Fate to beat Izako Boars.
I plan on being under the field on Avez, I think the addition of flameZ is going to help Singularity quite a bit, as he is a good player and waste no time in showing it. He posted a +39 k-d in his first series for Singularity, a 3 map victory over Izako Boars. I personally think the odds aren’t giving Singularity quite enough credit here.
For underdogs, I already mentioned the obvious spot to look is SKADE. They have the best odds, and strong projections. I’ll certainly have some shares here, but since I like Nordavind (from an ownership perspective, I don’t think the odds are off), I’ll likely end up significantly lower than the field here. I plan on being over the field on Singularity though. They project pretty well, and as the 2nd biggest underdog, I don’t expect to carry much ownership at all. Nicodooz in particular projects as a strong value at only $5.2k, he could put a good score even in a (close) loss. As I already mentioned, I also like flameZ here, and again his price being up around many of the players on favorites ($7.8k) makes me like him even more as his ownership should be super low.
The most popular captains on Monday are likely to come from Forze (xsepower and FL1t) and Avez (Kei). I will certainly have a little bit of all 3, but I think their captain ownership will be higher than the likelihood that any of them end up the top scorer on the slate. I much prefer captains from Fate and Nordavind. From Fate I’ll have a mix of h4rn and mar, and from Nordavind I’ll have mostly Tenzki with a little bit of HS mixed in.
I also like running captains from underdogs if I am going to have a 2 man stack from the underdog. By playing that stack I am basically I think the underdog is going to win or at least keep it close enough to basically score the same points as the favorite in a loss. I like nicoodooz and flameZ from Singularity in this spot, as both have the upside to be the top scorer on the slate. I’ll have a little bit of Dennyslaw and Rainwaker captain from Skade, and when I stack Copenhagen I’ll go with some mertz captain lineups. I plan on mostly fading Izako Boars in both the flex and captain spots, as they tend to be fairly spread in their kills, and on the lower end in fantasy points per round as a whole.
Good luck on Monday!