Welcome back, ESL Pro League continues Tuesday with another 3 game slate of the same teams that played Monday. Lock is at 7:30 am EDT again and the games are:
Vitality (91% implied win probability) vs Bad News Bears
Astralis (63%) vs Ence
Heroic (57%) vs Spirit
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Allu and Alter are definitely not playing, don’t play them. Spongey is playing despite being listed as “OUT” on DK, and Junior is playing despite being listed as “Q”.
On Monday we saw Xyp9x sit out for Astralis while Lucky made his debut. I’d expect the same for Tuesday, although Astralis technically haven’t confirmed whether or not the same lineup will play. They are again not the first game so it’s unlikely we find out who is starting before lock. I think it’s very likely it’s the same lineup, so I’ll be removing Xyp from my player pool and leaving the other 5 (Lucky is in the player pool today). Note that if they do sit someone else it shouldn’t be Lucky, as he is the AWP and therefore 2nd safest (behind Glaive who is IGL), so he’s safe to play.
Bad News Bears looked frankly awful on Monday against Heroic, and Tuesday it’s Vitality’s turn to beat up on them. Vitality will likely be super chalky, and in cash/SE that makes perfect sense. Kyojin is far too cheap, and Zywoo is Zywoo. However, if there’s any day you’re going to fade Zywoo in GPPs, Tuesday might be that day. Pricing is pretty tight, and Zywoo shouldn’t need to do a ton for his team to win. Now, when I say “fade” Zywoo, what I mean is if you’re MME’ing and the field has 60% Zywoo, maybe you have 30% Zywoo. I’m not even positive I’ll fade him myself, but I think the idea has more merit than it usually does. I’m not going to fade Kyojin/Vitality as a whole though. I’ll likely have some exposure to Vitality is the vast majority of my lineups. This is as close to a free win as you can get.
On the other side, I’m not at all interested in BNB stacks. I’ll maybe have a couple of Junior one-off’s in the hopes that he can score 50 in a loss and that with the tight pricing that’s enough, but even though it’s only a 3 game slate I’m completely avoiding BNB stacks.
Fortunately, the other 2 games are pretty interesting. Astralis looked solid in Lucky’s debut, taking down Spirit in 3 maps, and now face Ence. The scoreline on Mirage ended up closer than it should’ve been, as Vitality blew a 4v2 up 15-10 and then proceeded to tilt rush several times in a row before finally closing the map out. I do think the line here is a basically correct, as Astralis will likely have some growing pains with Lucky at some point. I’d probably put it at more like 65-67% Astralis favored but that’s splitting hairs for DFS purposes. I’ll have plenty of exposure to Astralis. Lucky and Bubzkji are both solid value plays, and Magisk and Dupreeh should be low owned with how tight pricing is. All 5 players who should be playing are decent plays in this spot.
I’ll also have some exposure to Ence. Everyone besides Snappi scores fairly similarly, with Spinx leading the pack slightly, and are all squarely in play. Even snappi is so cheap that he’s worth a look if MME’ing. I won’t be going nuts with my Ence exposure, but they should come with low ownership in this spot.
In the last game of the day we have Heroic as slightly-better-than-a-coinflip favorites against Spirit. Cadian jumps out as being underpriced relative to Teses, and I’d again expect ownership to congregate at Cadian and for Teses to go super underowned. I again like Teses a lot in GPPs. Sjuush and Stavn are also priced reasonably, and Refrezh as always is cheap.
I do think the Spirit side will also get quite a bit of ownership. Mir and Degster are priced affordably, and can really help you save to fit Zywoo/Vitality. On Monday I thought SDY was underpriced, but then he laid an absolute egg out there. I’m starting to think he’s bait, as his FP/r has fallen below Magixx over the past 3 months. If you look at his game log, he’s been pretty consistently negative when Spirit play T1 teams, and beats up on T2/3 teams a bit. I’d rather play Magixx for $800 more.
With pricing tight I think playing value captain is perfectly reasonable on this slate. That said, the first place everyone will look is Zywoo. Again, it’s worth looking at fading him in GPP’s (or playing under the field if you MME). For raw points, players who can outscore him include: Teses, Cadian, Mir, Degster, Magisk, Dupreeh, Spinx, Hades.
Cadian, Mir, Degster, Spinx, and Hades all also represent pretty decent savings over playing Zywoo. I like all of them in the midrange at captain.
I also like going all the way down for a value captain. Kyojin and Lucky are the two that stick out to me, but Bubzkji, Sjuush, and even Doto are also worth a look.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!