Sunday we have a 2 game slate with the tournament finals from EU and NA of the Dreamhack Open. Even though they are the grand finals they are still best of 3 series, not the best of 5 that are typical in grand finals. BiG are 66% implied odds favorites over Heroic, while Team Liquid are ever so slight favorites against Furia (54% implied odds).
The pricing on this slate is very odd. Xantares and Syrson are way priced up for BiG, $9.4k and $10.2k respectively, but for some reason tabseN is only $8.0k. I have no idea why this is the case, as all three have very similar fantasy points per round over the last 3 months. tabseN is clearly underpriced relative to his teammates and I expect he will be the most popular of the 3, particularly in the captain slot.
Liquid on the other hand, is extremely cheap. No one is priced over $7.6k, and Grim is all the way down at $6.6k. He still projects extremely well, and I again expect him to be super popular. Since pricing is so loose he probably won’t be disproportionately popular at captain like he has been recently, but he will undoubtedly still be popular at captain as well as flex. I think the most recent 2 matches are more indicative of this new Team Liquid than his first match, all 5 players are capable fraggers, which will limit Grim’s upside most of the time.
Furia is roughly the same price as Team Liquid, but again that doesn’t really matter because pricing is loose enough that you can pair either team with BiG. arT is again a distant 4th in price, but since pricing doesn’t really matter on this slate and since he flopped last time out while so high owned, I will be back on him again. I expect more people to be on Liquid than Furia, but I think the ownership should go BiG, Liquid, Furia, Heroic. BiG hasn’t exactly dominated this tournament, OG took them to the brink of elimination on Saturday, so I’ll definitely have some Heroic lineups here. I’ll pair them with both sides of the Furia/Liquid game.
As I am planning on being well over the field on Heroic, I’ll also be heavy on them at the captain slot. niko in particularly has played well this tournament, but I’ll also have some Teses and Stavn captain lineups.
I’ll probably fade Grim at captain again, I still think his projections haven’t caught up to this new Liquid team. I’ll have a bit of Elige and Naf but not a ton.
I probably won’t use much of Furia captains, if I do I’d probably go with mostly Yuurih. While I like arT at the flex that’s because I think he has a chance to be in the top 3 scorers on Furia, I think his upside to score the highest on the slate is fairly low.
From BiG, I expect tabseN to be the most popular captain. Syrson and Xantares are the only captains on the slate where pricing becomes and issue, whereas Tabsen allows a lot more flexibility. I’ll mostly be staying away from BiG at the captain spot, but I’ll probably stick with Tabsen if I do with Big, as I expect all the Syrson and Xantares cpt 3/3 lineups to be duplicated at least several times, whereas Tabsen has many more lineup combinations possible.
Good luck on Sunday!