After a pretty strange 2 game slate Friday, Saturday is back to a 3 game slate. We have 2 from EU and one from…Asia? Interesting decision from DK as they haven’t put any of the other Asian games on the main slate, but I am a fan as the more games the better in my opinion. It’s another 7am EST start so make sure to get those lineups in!
Tyloo are the biggest favorites on the slate at a 70% implied win probability over Vici. These teams matchup constantly since the Asian region has much less top tier teams and from what I can see Tyloo pretty much always wins. BiG are right behind them at 69% favorites vs OG, and Complexity are the smallest favorite at 60% implied win probability vs Heroic.
Pricing is back to being fairly loose. Syrson is the highest on slate at $9.0k and only 5 other players are at $8.0k or higher. There are tons of lineups available using only favorites, so value is not much of a concern for Saturday.
Tyloo as a whole, and somebody ($6.6k) in particular are underpriced, as they have 4 of the top 5 values amongst favorites in our projections, with somebody being the top value on a team projected to win. I expect them to be popular, but am hoping that people are less familiar with them than the other teams on the slate
OG and Heroic, OG in particular, are both dirt cheap. Since you don’t really need the extra salary savings though, I don’t expect any of the underdogs to have a large amount of ownership. For OG, Mantuu has struggled since the restart, and I can’t help but wonder if his arm injury that he revealed before the break is still bothering him. His struggles have been enough for me to want to stay away from OG as a whole here. I don’t think they can compete with BiG. I may take a few shots on Heroic, as they have the talent to match up with Col, but I do expect them to be the most popular underdog since they have the best Vegas odds. I expect Jamyoung to be popular from Vici, as he is probably the best player in that game, but he is priced accordingly at 8k. I may have a few one offs of him but I don’t plan on stacking Vici at all. They’ve lost to Tyloo 6 straight times (all since early July) and I don’t see any reason that will change tomorrow.
I expect Blamef and the big 3 of BiG to be the most popular captains Saturday. They’re pretty easy to fit given how underpriced Tyloo is, and I think the lack of familiarity (and fact that their players all score relatively evenly) will keep people away from Tyloo captains. For that reason I plan on going pretty heavy on Tyloo captains. I’ll have a pretty even split of all 5 players, as they are all within .03 fp/round of each other over the last 3 months (and all are in the top 12 on the slate over that time).
That’s where I’ll go for most of my captains, but I’ll mix in a few of Syrson, Xantares, and Tabsen from BiG and maybe a bit of Blamef. We are definitely looking for raw points instead of point per dollar in the captain slot, so I’m not going to go any further down the Col roster, as I don’t expect a repeat performance from Poizon and don’t really see oBo or Konfig getting to the slate’s top score either.
I’m probably going to have very little of any of the underdogs on this slate, but if you think their team will win, Jamyoung from Vici, Mantuu, Issa, or Valde from OG, and Stavn, Teses, and niko from Heroic are all capable of putting up the slates top score in a win.
Good luck on Saturday!