Thursday brings us yet another 3 game slate from Dreamhack. We are back to 2 EU games and only 1 NA, which means the start time is back to 7am EST. That combined with the return of LoL has dropped the prize pools down a bit, but they’re still at respectable levels with the $10 GPP offering $5,000 to first.
Heroic are a large (74% implied odds) favorite of Endpoint, and interestingly enough Cloud 9 are a 70% favorite over TeamOne even though they just lost to them the other day. OG are much slimmer favorites (56%) against Forze.
The pricing on this slate certainly has a few head-scratchers. The first that jumps out is Mantuu priced all the way up at $10.4k, $800 higher than anyone else (oSee at $9.6k) on the slate. Now he is one of the best players on the slate, sure, but he is on the smallest favorite, and has honestly been struggling a bit to start the tournament. Now, struggling by Mantuu’s standard is still performing 2nd best on the team in fantasy points per round (and only trailing Valde by .01 per round), but it’s not as if he has been fragging like a Zywoo or S1mple, yet he’s priced like he has been. Mantu’s price makes it more difficult to stack OG with the other favorites without dipping into the bottom fraggers from at least 1 of them. Playing the Forze side, however, allows you to fit basically any combination of C9 and Heroic players you want, as Forze are all priced below 7k. I actually think Forze could end up more popular than OG tomorrow because of this. I do think it will be close though, as T1 also opens up a ton of options, but we’ll get to that in a minute. Valde and Issa are priced much more appropriately than Mantuu, at $7.8k and $6.8k respectively, and I’ll definitely have some shares of them and Mantuu, especially since I think Forze might be more popular.
Thursday presents an interesting case study in how people are making their CS:GO lineups. Are they simply looking at Vegas and/or projections, or are they looking at game logs and recent performance? If it’s the former, ownership will flock to Forze, they project well and are the smallest favorites on the slate. If it’s the latter, TeamOne should garner quite a bit of ownership. T1 has been impressive so far this tournament, beating this very same C9 team the other day and then becoming the only team in the last 3 months to beat Furia on Mirage Wednesday before ultimately falling. They’re also interestingly priced up a bit higher than Forze, but still allow you to do pretty much whatever you want around them. I am willing to bet that more people build via Vegas and projections, so I plan on being over the field on TeamOne (and likely under on Forze).
Endpoint technically beat Mad Lions the other day, but they lost their own map pick 16-0 so did they really win? I have little interest in them here against Heroic, maybe a Crucial 1-off here and there and that’s about it. They should have by far the lowest ownership on the slate though, so if you are higher on them as a team than I am, you will definitely get good leverage on the field by stacking them. On the other side of that matchup, Teses is notable underpriced at only $7.6k. He is right behind Niko and Stavn (and ahead of Cadian) in fantasy points per round over the past 3 months, and has been better than both Niko and Stavn so far this tournament. Somehow, he comes in $1,200 below Stavn and $400 below Niko. I expect he’ll be super popular Thursday, but it’s for good reason.
As I just mentioned, Teses should be super popular on Thursday, both in the captain and the flex. While I think he is underpriced relative to Stavn and Niko, I think all 3 have about equal chances to put up the top score for Heroic (with Cadian coming in slightly below the trio in likelihood and Borup needing a miracle to be top scorer on the day). There’s enough value on the slate that I don’t care about points per dollar in my captain slot, I’m looking for the top scorer on the day. If Stavn and Niko have lower ownership than Teses, I prefer them in my captain slot Thursday.
I have no interest in any captains from Endpoint. If they do manage to eek out a win I expect it would be dirty and don’t see many scenarios where an Endpoint player ends up the high scorer on the slate.
Mantuu is priced so much higher than any of his teammates ($2.6k higher than Valde) that I think it will suppress his captain ownership. That makes me like him quite a bit. One of these days he is going to go off for the top score on the slate, and you can bet I am going to have shares of him at captain, especially if he is going to be relatively low owned. I expect Valde and Issa to have a bit of captain ownership themselves, and each makes for a fine play. I’d probably play 60/20/20 percent in my lineups with OG captain, with Mantuu of course being the 60.
On the other side of that matchup, I think Xsepower and Fl1t make for fine captains. I think they’ll be less sneaky than underdogs usually are so I won’t be going overboard on them.
I will likely be fully fading Cloud 9 captains. They’ve looked truly bad in this tournament, losing to T1 and needing 3 overtimes in 2 maps to beat Yeah. All those overtimes really saved/boosted their scores vs Yeah, so game log watchers may not realize how bad they have looked. I fully expect them to struggle with T1 again, and will look elsewhere for my captains.
I do like all 3 of b4rtiN, prt, and pesadelo for T1 in the captain slot. I expect them to be low owned, and it’s possible one of them puts up the high score of the day if they can take down Cloud 9 again. I’d put this matchup at basically a coinflip personally, so I’ll be heavy on T1 here both in the flex and captain.
That’s it for today, good luck on Thursday!