Wednesday brings with it yet another 3 game slate from Dreamhack, featuring 2 NA/SA games and 1 EU.
Furia are massive (89% implied odds) favorites over TeamOne, while Complexity (60%) and Chaos (59%) are much smaller favorites over OG and Ze Pug Godz, respectively. I’m a tiny bit surprised Chaos is favored here, as ZPG did 2-0 them the only time these teams have met recently. Also worth noting these teams face off against each other for a different tournament immediately prior to their Dreamhack matchup. The first tournament is after lock so we can’t use it to influence our lineups, but it could impact the actual series as both teams should be able to make adjustments based on the first series.
Draftkings has continued the trend of pricing 2 favorites up fairly highly, but then inexplicably leaving one favorite priced much lower. Wednesday that favorite is Chaos. Complexity are barely favored by more than Chaos, yet they have 4 players priced higher than Chaos’ highest. Using Chaos allows you to build an all favorites lineup fairly comfortably, so I expect that they will be very popular. Xeppaa should be close to if not the highest owned player and captain on the slate. He projects as the number 2 scorer on the slate (behind BlameF) yet is only the 9th highest price.
In an interesting turn of events, Art is now averaging the 2nd most fantasy points per round on Furia over the last 3 months, just barely ahead of Kscerato and Hen1. Draftkings has either been super perceptive of this or blindly bumbled their way into it, but either way they have actually priced Furia almost accordingly. Art is priced all the way up to $8,800. I imagine that most people still think of Art as a distant 4th best fragger, however, that’s not how they’ve been playing. Art will likely come in with much lower ownership than he deserves because of this. You can differentiate without going to an underdog simply by playing Art in most of your Furia stacks.
As for the underdogs on the slate, ZPG is my favorite. I’ve already mentioned this, but they beat Chaos fairly handily the last time these teams played. The tricky part is that anyone on ZPG could be the top fragger that day, as evidenced by Tuesday, where Zellsis and Dazzle played great while Cooper- struggled immensely. This actually makes me like Cooper- more Wednesday, as he left many with a sour taste in their mouth Tuesday and they will not want to play him again. Plus, as the Awper he is really the only one with a consistent role on this team, as everyone else seems to swap quite a bit from round to round. I do expect ZPG to be fairly popular, as aside from falling asleep at the wheel after going up 15-3 on Mirage they looked really good against Triumph on Tuesday.
OG are worth taking a few shots on as well. I think it’s less likely they upset Complexity than ZPG beats Chaos, but it’s definitely not impossible. Mantuu can always take a map over and Valde and Issa really stepped up to start this tournament too. I wouldn’t run any TeamOne unless you are putting all 105 entries into the $10, and even then I’d only use them in a couple of lineups. The win over C9 has lost a bit of it’s luster, as C9 needed 3 overtimes to beat Yeah in 2 maps in their second series of the tournament. I think that win says more about C9 than it does TeamOne. Furia should roll here.
Xeppaa is mostly likely to be the highest owned captain of the day. I plan on mostly fading him, playing maybe 2 or 3% of my lineups with him at captain. I really think ZPG are going to win that game, or at the very least keep it close enough that Xeppaa has a hard time really popping off.
I like Blamef a lot at captain. Even with the Chaos value it’s tough to make lineups with him at captain and all favorites without dipping into the bottom fraggers of the favorites. I think that’s going to cause him to have lower captain ownership than he should have (while his flex ownership will likely be sky high). I think more people are going to go to Obo or Konfig for their Col captains, especially after the game Obo put up the other day. I’ll try to get a bit contrarian here by sticking with Blamef for the mostpart.
I think anyone except Vini is viable at captain from Furia. The same logic for playing Art at all applies to putting him in the captain spot. His captain ownership should be virtually non-existent, so if he ends up their top scorer, which is just as likely as Hen1 or Kscerato ending up top scorer based on the recent stats, you get a leg up on a huge portion of the field.
Given the fact that literally any of the 5 ZPG players could be their top scorer, I’d probably stay away from them at CPT unless you are MME’ing. If you are I’d fairly evenly spread my captain ownership around between at least the 4 non-Zellsis players, and even including him isn’t bad.
In your OG lineups, don’t be afraid to play Mantuu at captain. If they win he has as good a shot as anybody at putting up the top score on the slate.
That’s it from me, good luck on Wednesday!