3 more Dreamhack best of 3 series are on the docket for Tuesday. We get a nice 10am Est start instead of the 7am we’ve been having as two of the games are NA games and only 1 EU. DK has increased the contest sizes after everything filled pretty early for Monday’s events. With LoL off this is our time to shine. Hopefully we can fill these bigger contests again Tuesday!
In EU, Big are moderate (~65% implied win probability) favorites over Heroic. In NA, Ze Pug Godz are roughly the same sized favorites over Triumph. Liquid is the only huge favorite, given a roughly 87% chance to beat Chaos according to the implied odds.
Pricing seems to be starting to revert back to how it was previously, as it was fairly loose on Monday and is even looser Tuesday. After putting up the top score on the entire slate in his first appearance for Liquid, Grim was dropped from 10k and more expensive than Elige, to 8.2(!)k and a full $1,000 less than Elige. That’s not even to mention NAF, who for some reason is at $9,400, the most expensive player on the slate. I expect Grim to be far and away the most owned player, and captain, on the slate.
Ze Pug Godz are significantly underpriced compared to the other two favorites. MarkE in paricular is too low at $6,600, but Cooper- and Infinite are also too cheap compared to the top players on Liquid and BiG (Grim excluded). Zellsis on the other hand, seems overpriced at $8,400, as he’s scored the 4th most fantasy points per round on the team over the last 3 months (note that Dazzle just joined but he looks to be low scorer on the team). Grim’s pricing plus Ze Pug Godz being largely underpriced makes it very easy to make lineups of all favorites.
With how easy it is to make favorite only lineups, I expect the underdogs to go pretty overlooked tomorrow. Everyone on Chaos is incredibly cheap, the 4 cheapest players on the slate are all Chaos players, but I only plan on having a couple of lineups with Chaos, if I have any at all. This new version of Liquid looking outstanding vs Ze Pug Godz, and seeing as Chaos lost to Ze Pug Godz the last time the teams met, I don’t see them fairing much better in this spot. This is strictly an ownership play, but I’d rather go elsewhere for my ownership edge on this slate.
Heroic will be the underdog I go to the most on Tuesday. They looked great in an easy 2-0 in their opening match vs Mad Lions, and I think have a real shot to upset BiG here. BiG themselves looked a bit sloppy vs Endpoint, even dropping a map, in their opening series. The high ownership on Cloud 9 Monday showed that the public is generally not reacting to how a team “looks” and for the most part makes lineups that align (actually tending to tip even more towards the favorites) with the Vegas odds. I’ll have a sprinkling of Triumph as well, especially given that the max entry is back up to 88 lineups for the big $10 GPP, but I really prefer both NA favorites on this slate.
Grim is the obvious top captain of the slate, and I would be remiss not to mention him. He’ll undoubtedly be popular, and I’ll try to differentiate my Grim lineups mostly by playing Heroic, with some Triumph sprinkled in. Elige may actually end up going underowned at captain because of how popular Grim will be. If he can outscore Grim, which is not implausible, playing Elige captains and Grim flex puts you squarely ahead of a large chunk of lineups who did the opposite. I think pricing is loose enough that the point per dollar value doesn’t really matter unless Elige only outscores Grim by a couple points.
Any of the BiG top 3 players, Xantares, Tabsen, and Syrson, could be the top scorer on the day. The challenge is figuring out which one. I’ll probably have a couple share of each at captain.
In my Heroic lineups, I’ll likely have a bit of Teses, Stavn, and Niko, at captain, as again any of those 3 could easily be Heroic’s top scorer on the day.
On Ze Pug Godz, all three of MarkE, Cooper- and Infinite make for solid captain choices, and I’ll yet again have shares of all 3.
Now, you may have noticed that I’ve highlighted 11 captains for Tuesday, whereas I only highlighted 4 on Monday’s slate. The reason I did this is that other than Grim I expect captain ownership to be pretty spread out. You don’t need to get overly cute with Chaos and/or Triumph lineups to differentiate your lineups. This is a slate where I’d rather play a tight core of players and rotate the captain as opposed to playing a tight core of captains and rotating the players (which was my approach Monday).
Good luck out there Tuesday!