Dreamhack chugs along on Monday with 3 more games. This will be the 2nd game for every team, so hopefully they’ve all shaken of the player break rust. Congrats to Esportsdepartment subscriber and discord regular, Nvanhare, on his take down Sunday! He managed to hold off my Prt captain lineup (as recommended in this article) with a beautifully constructed 2-2 Col-T1 (one offs from Furia and OG) linuep, well done!
Since all of these teams have already played a game, none have made any changes in the last day or two. Nothing of note and I’ll take this section out until ESL starts up in a little over a week.
After 2 days of super tight pricing, Draftkings has made it a little bit easier to fit the favorites on Monday. It’s still tighter than it used to be, but it’s more reasonable to play lineups with only favorites on Monday. There is still not much point per dollar value to be had from favorites based on our projections, as acor and mir check in as the top value’s from any of the 3 favorites. I expect Mad Lions in particular to be popular tomorrow amongst the favorites, as they come at a significant discount to Spirit and Cloud 9, acor and sjuush both come in at 7600, tied for most expensive on the team. Meanwhile oSee is over 9k and Mir and Floppy are just short, coming in at 8.8 and 8.6 respectively. It’s pretty easy to fit all favorite lineups with Acor/Sjuush at captain, and I expect that build to be the most popular build on the day.
Tomorrow’s slate will be a real test of how many people play purely off of Vegas vs how many watch the games and make lineup decisions based on what they see. Cloud 9 looked horrible vs TeamOne on Sunday, barely squeaking out an OT win on the 1st map before winning 9 rounds on maps 2 and 3…combined. However, they are again the biggest favorites on the slate Monday. I expect that Vegas will outweigh the “eye-test” here, and expect Cloud 9 to come in pretty highly owned. I plan on being well under the field, as this team has just failed to impress me. On the other side of that matchup, Dumau and his teammates got crushed in map 1 against Furia, losing 16-2. In map 2 though, they responded impressively and forced Furia to go all 30 rounds on their own map pick before ultimately losing 16-14. Dumau again comes in underpriced at 6200, and again even in a loss could easily pay off that salary. He went 28-18 in that map 2 loss, and I don’t expect Yeah to get as dominated by Cloud 9 as they did on the first map against Furia. I like Dumau a lot as the 1 in a 3-2-1 lineup, and would again be ok with running him and 1 or 2 Cloud 9 players in the same lineup.
Of the EU underdogs, I’ll be heavier on Forze than Endpoint. Forze really gave Complexity a scare in their opening match, winning a map and jumping out to a lead on the 3rd map before Complexity went on a run. I’ll be lightest on Endpoint even though they have the closest Vegas odds. I just don’t see it with this team, I think Mad should be favored by more than they are (this is admittedly bias on my part). I expect Endpoint to have the highest ownership of the underdogs as I think almost every lineup will have one side or the other of that game.
I like mir a lot in the captain slot for Monday. His price (8,800) makes it just hard enough to captain him in all favorite lineups that he should a) come in at lower ownership than he should and/or b) be captain in a lot of lineups that feature bottom fraggers from the other favorites. I’ll be using him at captain paired with Dumau in plenty of lineups. Speaking of Dumau, if you are of the mindset that Yeah will compete with or even beat Cloud 9, he makes for a great under the radar captain, much like prt on Sunday. If Yeah wins Dumau could very well put up the top score on the whole slate. I like acor over sjuush at captain if you are going to go with someone from Mad Lions. He’s been playing better of late, and really stepped up the other day in their first series without Bubz. I’ll probably have a few of lineups with him at Cpt, although I do expect it to be popular. Lastly, in my Forze lineups, I like xsepower at captain. He showed what he can do against Complexity where he went 30-19 on map 2, and basically willed Forze to victory. He should come in with super low captain ownership, and like Dumau, if Forze manage to win he has the upside to put up the top score on the slate.
That’s it for today, let’s get some more Esportsdepartment members [and writers 🙂 ] at the top of the scoreboard again Monday!