What’s up guys and gals? Chris here. If you read my Dota intro blog or saw on Twitter, you may already know that I’m going to be covering CS:GO DFS here at The Esports Department. I typically mass multi enter low to mid stakes GPPs on Draftkings, so this article will definitely be GPP focused. I wouldn’t read this to get advice for constructing your cash game lineups.
My plan for this article is to compliment the awesome projections that Wunsta, Hodge, and co. have created. I’ll give a little bit of insight into who I like in the captain spot, who I think is mispriced, and what potential stacks I think are going to be under-owned. On small slates I’ll probably focus more on how to differentiate your lineups and have a shot at a solo takedown. Without further ado, let’s jump into Tuesday’s Mythic Tournament slate…
How you handle Chaos is going to be super important on this slate. They are playing Mythic, which is a team made up of streamers. Chaos should absolutely dominate this matchup. The only question is will they win too quickly to post the best DFS scores on the slate. My gut answer is yes, and I prefer either Grim or Dumau as my captain over Xeppaa. Leaf however, is entirely too cheap at 6,000 flat. DK has gotten much better at pricing since they released CS:GO, but there’s still usually a couple guys per slate who make you scratch your head. Tonight that’s Leaf and Dumau for me. I wouldn’t blame you for locking Leaf into every single lineup at that price. Chaos will be the chalk of all chalk tonight, but I think the smart play is to limit the exposure to Chaos captains in GPPs, as if they win in 45 or so total rounds that will limit their upside a bit. As an aside, Bovada has Chaos -1.5 maps (meaning you need Chaos to sweep to win the bet) at -230 right now. I don’t see how Mythic possibly take a map of Chaos tonight, if you watched fl0m’s stream during last night’s game you know that this team is just there to have fun while Chaos are a bordline T1 team within NA.
Triumph and our boy Grim will also be very chalky. Pricing is so soft that you can easily stack the best Chaos players with the best Triumph players. Again, it’s not bad chalk but I want to look a little bit at how we can differentiate ourselves. YeaH! are probably my favorite team to target on the night. They’ve been a part of I think one tournament that’s been on DK before this, so they are relatively unknown to the public, and with how easy it is to stack Triumph and Chaos tonight I think they’ll be lower owned than they should (I do expect they’ll have pretty clearly the 3rd highest ownership on the day). Dumua has been on a tear recently, averaging just under .8 fantasy points per round over the last month. That trails only Grim (1.02!!) and Xeppa (.82) on the slate. He’s my favorite captain for GPPs on the night as I imagine he’ll garner much less attention than those two.
I’ll also have a good amount of Recon 5 and Team One. That game should go almost entirely overlooked, it’s two teams few people know anything about, and it has the closest odds on the night. Scoring for both teams is fairly spread out, there aren’t one or two stars we can target, which should depress ownership even more. A good way to be different is to play the chalk from Chaos and Triumph mixed with the “lesser” players from either of these teams, as again both teams are super balanced (nosraC from Recon 5 being a notable exception, he has lagged significantly behind his 4 teammates, all of whom score about the same).
Before I go, I wanted to talk a bit about lineup construction on 4+ game slates. CS:GO has a ton of 2 and 3 game slates, so people are very used to stacking 3 from a single team. However, as slates get larger it’s important to remember that there are only so many kills, and therefore fantasy points, to go around in a CS:GO game. I like to think of each game as a pie. There is only so much pie to go around, so if one player takes a huge chunk of pie, aka racks up a ton of kills, there’s less pie to go around for everyone else. Which scenario are you likely to end up with more pie, 3 guys sharing the same one, or two sharing from 1 and another from another totally different pie? I’d argue the latter. (This same logic applies to why I do run solo captain’s on bigger slates, I want them to take as much pie as humanly possible).
I’ll eventually get to writing an evergreen article with the numbers and data to back this all up, but personally I almost never 3 man stack in slates of 4 games or more. A large chunk of the field still does, and I think running 2-2-2 or 2-2-1-1 will give us a significant advantage over them. I also very rarely run opponents in the same lineup, and I never run a 2-1 from the same game, only a 1-1. Typically I’ll do that if there’s a S1mple or Zywoo on the slate. I don’t plan on doing it tonight. DISCLAIMER: This is not because I don’t think Grim is that good, I am definitely not hating on our beloved boy, I just don’t plan on running an Oceanus so my Grim lineups will only have Triumph.
That’ll do it for my first CS:GO article, let me know what you think on twitter or discord! Thanks for reading, and good luck out there!