It’s Day 2 of CSGO’s first tournament back on LAN, IEM Cologne. We have another 4 game slate, this time Bo3’s. Lock is at 7:30 am EDT and the games are:
Sprout (69% implied win probability) vs TeamOne
EG (78%) vs Vici Gaming
Complexity (72%) vs LDLC
OG (80%) vs Renegades
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Don’t play skullz, tarik, issa, or NBK.
People are catching on that oBo and Michu are the players you want for EG now, but Cerq is definitely too cheap given the odds. You can argue Brehze is too. Given his hyper-aggressive new role, he’s much more likely to put up good numbers when EG is much more skilled than their opponents. However, I don’t think that’s the case here. VG actually looked pretty damn solid against Col. They had a couple of bad round losses that could’ve turned the map (and it was a bo1 so the map is the match) around. I think they’re the most live underdog, even though the odds say they’re the 2nd biggest. I’d definitely get some exposure here if you build multiple lineups.
I expect TeamOne to attract a bit of ownership. They’re too cheap, as they’re the smallest underdogs on the slate but priced way down like Sprout are huge favorites. I don’t think either of these teams are all that great but I’ll definitely have some of each side. I imagine Faven will go fairly overlooked because he’s super expensive, which makes me like him for GPP’s.
For Col, Poizon is “underpriced”. I put that in quotes because he’s been pretty bad for a while, so I really don’t think he’s that underpriced. He’s my 4th favorite option, I’d rather pay up for K0nfig, jks, and BlameF. I’m not really interested in the LDLC side. Unlike the TeamOne’s, VG’s, and even Renegade’s of the world where they’re coming from different regions and there’s an element of “we (and Vegas) don’t really know how good they are” where we can reasonably say the odds might be off, LDLC play in Europe all the time, we know they aren’t good.
I’m not super interested in Renegades, although I am interested in Alistair one-offs. He’s taken over as the primary AWP, and he’s a stud. Plus he’s underpriced. I may have a few Ren stacks in MME, but I’ll mostly be on Alistair. On the OG side, everyone is in play. I prefer Aleksi to niko for the “value” play on OG. niko just doesn’t do anything (aka he’s a support player) a lot of the time. Aleksi has much better upside and also has a safety net of picking up a lot of assists.
I like enough underdogs/value plays that I’m looking for top score on the slate upside at captain. Some of my favorite plays are:
Beyond them, my player pool will consist of basically the top 2-3 scorers from every team. I’m not super interested in value captains since there are a decent amount of salary savers, particularly if you play an underdog or two.
Good luck on Wednesday!