We’re back with another slate from Brazil, this time a 6 gamer as DK has decided to go with only 1 slate but still cut the last 2 games off (??). It’s still Bo1’s and lock is at 4:15 pm EDT again. The games are:
MiBR (82% implied win probability) vs Detona
Santos (57%) vs Keyd
Sharks (85%) vs Black Dragons
Meta (51%) vs Patins de Ferrari
Paqueta (83%) vs SWS
INTZ (72%) vs GKC
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Don’t play Luken, he’s been benched by the Sharks. Also don’t play Gon, he’s been benched by INTZ.
There has been a ton of roster shuffling but the player pool otherwise looks good. One thing I did want to point out is that Santos recently changed 4/5 players on their roster, so don’t look at previous Santos vs Keyd matchups at all because Santos was an entirely different team even though they were fairly recent.
Yesterday I mentioned the importance of good lineup construction. What I should’ve also mentioned is letting other people make the mistakes. What I mean by that, is don’t play bottom fraggers on teams with a <20% win probability. It doesn’t matter if they cost 4k if they only score 2 DK points. Now if a team is super balanced and there isn’t really a “bottom fragger” then go ahead and play the cheapest guy. But players like Texxas and Gyzer should absolutely be nowhere near your lineups.
Going back to lineup construction for a second, it becomes arguably even more important on a 6 game slate. It’s also important to keep in mind that even in the biggest contest on the slate you’re only trying to beat 940 other lineups and no one has more than 28 entries. There’s no need to run a 1-1-1-1-1-1 lineup and try to nail the absolutely perfect combination. Let’s saying you’re really good and have a 70% chance of each individual play in your lineup crushing it, and I’m only OK and have a 50% chance of each 2 stack in my lineup crushing it. I have a 12.5% chance of my lineup being really good while you only have a 11.76% chance. If we say we’re on an even playing field of both having a 60% chance to hit there’s a 21.6% chance of the 2/2/2 hitting and only a 4.67% chance of the 1-1-1-1-1-1 hitting. Sure that 1-1-1-1-1-1 technically has more upside, and if this was a field of 9,400 players instead of 940 then maybe you’d run some no stack lineups, but the odds of hitting that upside are so much lower without stacking. Of my 28 lineups I’m going to run at least 21 as 2/2/2 and then the remaining 7 as probably 2/2/1/1. I’m only even running the 2/2/1/1 because there are a couple spots where I like one-offs, which we’ll get to in a minute.
On big slates like this, the first thing I look to do is eliminate entire teams. Black Dragons are the biggest underdogs, and they don’t have any standout players from a FP/r perspective. They’re outta here. Next are SWS, who are the 2nd biggest underdogs. Gafolo popped off yesterday, but his 3 month stats are very solid but definitely aren’t elite. Add in a likely bump in ownership from hand builders who saw him win people tournaments yesterday, and he’s outta here along with the rest of his team. Lastly, of the huge underdogs we have Detona. Unlike the last 2 teams, they do have a stud. Nqz averages the highest FP/r on the slate over both the last 3 months and last month (note – there are several teams I didn’t pull 1 month data for because they have barely played). He’s only $6.2k. I’m leaving him in my player pool while getting rid of all of his teammates. He’s one of the one off’s I was talking about above as to why I’m running some 2/2/1/1.
The last of the big underdogs is GKC. They are in kind of a middle ground where they’re definitely big underdogs but they’re 28% implied odds to win vs the other 3 teams I just mentioned being 18% or less. On a smaller slate I’d definitely leave them in, but there are a few concerns. For one they’ve barely played together as a team and all of their players have very limited sample sizes in their stats, even going back as far as a year. Two, they almost got 16-0’d yesterday. Paqueta are a solid team, but losing a half 15-0 doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. GKC ended up winning the 2nd half pistol and going on a 5 round streak, but I can’t imagine Paqueta were trying too hard at that point. However, that said fetixe and Timothyo both rate as really strong value plays, so I’ll probably have a tiny bit of exposure. I’ll also leave Fbz in my player pool. I will not be playing either ph1 or Lehmann.
Speaking of Paqueta, they’re the most balanced scoring team of the huge favorites. Their pricing also drops off a steep cliff. iDK, the “worst” player on the team, averages a very respectable .52 FP/r over his past 3 months but is only $6k. He’s my favorite value play on the slate. KHTEX is also a solid value at only $7.4k.
To keep this article from going insanely long, I’m just going to touch on a couple other random spots. One spot is bruninho. He’s in the coinflip game so he may go overlooked a bit, but he shouldn’t. He’s been putting up very solid numbers while his team has been mostly losing, if they win he can certainly pop off and he should still be solid even in a loss.
BALEROSTYLE is currently the player I’m most unsure of what to do with on the slate. Patins de Ferrari got obliterated yesterday, and that’s the only game he’s played remotely recently, so if you just look at his recent stats you’re going to think he’s terrible and get none of him. However, over his career (750ish rounds) he has very good numbers. Double however, he’s 27 years old and only has 750 career rounds on HLTV, could he really be that good? If you use his career numbers you’ll likely get him in every lineup, as he’s super cheap and his career numbers come out to .65 FP/r, which is a very strong number. I’m essentially splitting the difference between his terrible performance Wednesday and his strong career stats. My target is to get somewhere in the 10-20% range of him.
A few other guys who I think are underpriced/solid plays on the slate Raafa and Ponter from Keyd and elemeNt from Meta. They all profile as solid value plays and shouldn’t have a ton of ownership given their coinflip games.
I think there’s a little more value out there today than on yesterday’s main slate, so I’m looking more for raw points at captain. Some of my favorite plays are Lucaozy, Bruninho, Boltz, and Paiva. I also may dip into the mid-range a bit, where abr, raafa, elemeNt, and KHTEX are all solid options. Lastly, I do think iDK and nqz are both viable for value captains. There are definitely enough studs on the slate to make value captain worth running for a few lineups, but I don’t think it’s quite as strong as yesterday when there wasn’t much value and only 1 game with a underdog that had an actual chance to win.
Good luck on Thursday!