Friday rolls along with another Brazilian slate. Lock this time is at 3:15 pm EDT, an hour earlier than the last 2 days, so pay attention to that. It’s a 4 game slate again this time, still Bo1, and the games are:
KG Network (63% implied win probability) vs Black Dragons
Patins De Ferrari (62%) vs GKC
Bravos (70%) vs Santos
Detona (67%) vs SWS
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Rosters appear correct on DK.
As we continue along with the Swiss format, we’re starting to see more even matchups. Finally there’s a day where they aren’t any teams to immediately cross off at the start of the slate. These are still Bo1’s, and as literally anything can happen roster construction is still critical. I’ll be running all 2/2/2 for my 21 lineups today. And again, don’t play legit bottom fraggers like Texxas just because they are cheap. You especially don’t need a 4k guy on this slate when there are some actual good players at $6k.
Pricing is a bit worse today that it has been lately, there’s a few pretty mispriced guys. JOTA for Bravos sticks out in particular. He’s their 2nd best player in terms of FP/r, and 4th best on the whole slate (.74 FP/r over 3 months) they are the biggest favorite, yet he is only $6.8k, 4th on the team. His teammate Leomonster is also underpriced as $6.0k, as even though he is the bottom fragger, he still scores a very respectable .59 FP/r over the past 3 months.
Fetixe is also underpriced for GKC. Their pricing is all over the place, as their players have very little data and yesterday a couple of expected bottom fraggers top fragged alongside Fetixe. What numbers there are show that Fetixe should be the best fantasy player for GKC, yet he’s priced 4th on the team. Him and Timothyo make for a nice cheap stack.
Lastly, Gafolo is extremely cheap for what he’s been doing. He’s been putting up some really strong numbers despite his team getting slaughtered, and there’s no reason to think that can’t continue on Friday.
With all that value we should have some room to pay up. My favorite pay up spots are NQZ and Tuurtle. They’re the top 2 players on the slate in terms of FP/r over 3 months, both cracking .8 FP/r. Typically the only players you see above .8 are the elite players like Zywoo and S1mple. Obviously these players aren’t quite on that level, but relative to their competition…..
It’s really the guys I highlighted above for me. I love JOTA at captain because he’s both a raw upside and a value play. Tuurtle and NQZ are of course also high upside plays that can fit because of all the value.
One guy I didn’t already highlight who I like at captain is Unk. He’s KG Network’s best player and has been really solid so far this tournament.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!