Draftkings has decided they don’t want to give us slates from the literal kids in the Academy League that’s currently going on, so instead we have 2 separate 4 games slate from Brazil. This article will cover the main slate, which locks at 4:15 pm EDT. The games are:
Havan Liberty (82% implied win probability) vs KG Network
MIBR (85%) vs Keyd
Sharks (83%) vs Patins de Ferrari
INTZ (69%) vs SWS
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Where to begin. There is constant roster shuffling and team changes, so I’m going to highlight a few changes that could actually be relevant. The first is that this is the first official match Patins de Ferrari have played as a team. A few of the players were playing together previously, but the 5 man roster has never played together. None of the players are standouts based on their stats though so unless this is a big “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” situation, the 17% chance they have to win is probably about right.
Next, skullz is making his debut for Havan Liberty. If you only look at his recent stats (6 month or even 12 month since he doesn’t have any 3 month stats), you’ll probably think he’s bad. However, it’s important to look at the context of those stats. He joined TeamOne just in time for them to get massacred in Europe. Of course his stats are terrible his team was getting crushed by Gambit and Navi all the time. However, if you look at his 2020 stats for W7M, aka playing in Brazil like he will obviously be again now, you’ll get a much different picture. There he was a slightly positive KD player who put up a respectable FP/r. Now, it wasn’t anything crazy to the point that he’s wildly mispriced or anything, but he’s definitely a solid value play for Havan, and it’s likely he goes underowned because of his abysmal recent stats.
Lastly, Texxas is listed both on the HLTV match page and the DK player pool as playing for SWS. On the SWS team page he’s listed as the coach. He only has 45 rounds played professionally on HLTV (and his stats were horrible although again, only 45 rounds). Now, I have no idea if he’s actually playing or not. He is listed on HLTV. I’m simply going to leave him out of my player pool, but that’s not really why I’m highlighting him. I’m highlighting him because if he is playing, I like INTZ a lot more on the other side. SWS would basically be playing 4v5. Before you go too crazy on INTZ though, this could already be baked into the odds, I’m not entirely sure.
One other thing, don’t play Luken, he’s benched by Sharks.
I’ll be the first to tell you, outside of MIBR and a little bit of Sharks I’ve barely seen any of these teams play, a bunch I’ve never seen play. For slates like this, what we can focus on are the fundamentals. Those fundamentals being lineup construction, and leverage based on ownership. Unfortunately, that 2nd piece is a bit tough today because there are 3 massive underdogs and the 4th underdog possibly has a coach playing. Within the favorites, Havan Liberty might go a bit underowned as hand builders will likely stick with the teams they know, MIBR and maybe Sharks. I mentioned above about how Skullz stats likely undersell his ability, he’s my favorite value play on the slate. Alle is also my top rated stud on the slate, I have him just ahead of Chelo from MIBR and Lucaozy from Sharks.
The best thing we can do is control our lineup construction. In Bo1 I typically shift from a 3/2/1 build to a 2/2/2 build on 4 game slates. The reason for that is it’s harder for 3 guys on one team to put up a winning score in Bo1 than it is Bo3. In Bo3 of course there’s the sweep/rnp bonus that gives everyone 20 points for the 3rd map, and beyond that actually playing 2 maps gives a much better chance for 3 players to put up really good scores. On Map 1 Players A and B can have really good maps while Player C is OK, then on Map 2 Players A and C can have really good maps while Player B is OK and all 3 end up with really good scores. I’m going to stick to all 2/2/2 on this slate. Since it’s only 35 entries max in the $10, I don’t think we even need to play the <20% chance to win teams. There’s definitely good leverage on them if one wins, but the tournament is small enough that I don’t think we need to go there.
That leaves 5 teams in my pool, the 4 favorites plus SWS (minus Texxas).
Given that I’m focused on the favorites on this slate, I’ll be virtually forced to go with a lot of value captains. Skullz is again my favorite, but I also like paredao and shz. If you can afford a more mid-range captain, drg has been playing really well recently, I like him a lot as well.
On the high end, Boltz and dok aren’t quite as expensive as teammates Chelo and Alle, and those few extra dollars make a pretty big difference. I have a bit of each of them.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!