We have another 2-gamer from IEM Cologne on Saturday, as we’ve reached the semifinals of the tournament. Lock is again at 10:00 am EDT and the games are:
G2 (57% implied win probability) vs Astralis
Navi (69%) vs Faze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie and Coldzera are in the pool, don’t play them. Otherwise no sub risk.
Once again we have a slate with one big favorite and one that’s almost a coinflip. G2 are in a spot where they’re getting close to truly being favorites, but with how Astralis have looked I’m ready to call that game a coinflip. Pricing is fairly loose so it’s pretty easy to fit favorite/favorite. I expect that’s the route most people will go, at least in SE/Cash. Again, Faze are likely to go underowned relative to their chances to win. They’re again a strong GPP play, just like they were on Friday.
This is also a fairly unique slate in that 3/4 teams have super concentrated kill distributions. For Navi, S1mple is far and away the best but then Electronic and B1t are head and shoulders above Perfecto and Boomb4l. On G2, it’s Niko and Hunter way above everyone else, and for Faze it’s Broky and Twistzz far and away above the crowd. Astralis are the only team where their bottom fraggers have a solid chance to top frag any given day.
Because of that, I think it’s OK on this slate to run a 2/1 + 2/1 lineup (with 3 from each game). I normally never do that but I do think it’s worth a look in GPPs because of the top heavy teams. Hell even in cash there’s some merit to it as you’re unlikely to completely crash and burn as you have exposure to all the teams. For example Nexa and Magisk are basically the same price, I’d rather play Magisk even if I already have Niko + Hunter and a 2/1 from the other game. I wouldn’t do it in every lineup, but I do think it’s worth a look.
To S1mple or not to S1mple? He’s likely to have massive ownership at captain, and deservedly so. He’s far and away the top scorer on the slate in terms of FP/r, and has the highest floor and highest ceiling on the slate. If you pivot off him you’re looking for raw points, as prices are loose enough that point per dollar scores are unlikely to matter. There’s no one on Astralis that I think realistically outscores S1mple when he’s on, so I’m not likely to run Astralis captain in any S1mple lineups. From Faze, Niko definitely has the upside and Hunter sometimes does, I like both of them in GPP.
The easiest way to pivot though, is within S1mple’s own game. If Navi dominate, it’s possible Electronic or B1t outscore him, just because S1mple won’t have to do that much. I like both of them as pivots at captain. And of course there’s Broky and Twistzz on the other side. If Faze win either of them is capable of putting up the top score on the slate.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday.