IEM Cologne is back on Friday, with a 2 game slate locking at 10:00 am EDT. The games are:
Astralis (56% implied win probability) vs VP
Gambit (70%) vs Faze
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Coldzera is in the pool, don’t play him. Otherwise no sub risk.
This slate is very similar to Wednesday’s slate, where there’s one “big” favorite and one game that’s a toss-up. Just like Wednesday, everyone is going to lock in the big favorite then choose out of the coinflip game. To fit Gambit, who are of course the big favorite, you either need to pay down within Gambit or save money in the other game. This is going to lead to Nafany/Interz and VP being overowned since VP are cheaper than Astralis. It’s also likely to lead to Astralis being slightly underowned. Faze of course will have almost 0 ownership, which makes them a very strong GPP play. Faze stacks should only be 15% or so owned, and Faze has a 30% chance to win.
Again, if you play several Faze lineups stack them with both sides of the Astralis/VP game. What you don’t want to have happen is to nail your Faze stacks and then mess up the coinflip.
I want raw points at captain, but there’s a couple guys who can get you those raw points and aren’t super expensive. Hobbit sticks out from Gambit in particular, expect him to have pretty high ownership though. Ax1le is interesting because he’s right between Sh1ro and Hobbit, and that middle or the big 3 guy on Gambit is usually the one that goes overlooked, although it happens more when Hobbit is the middle guy than when Ax1le is. Jame in the other game is also kind of in that mid-range and will likely be popular. In cash/SE I don’t really think you need to go outside of that group, although Sh1ro is of course a great play if you can fit him. I wouldn’t sacrifice too much to get from Hobbit to Sh1ro captain though, Sh1ro only averages .05 FP/r more than Hobbit over the past 3 months.
In GPP’s I like both Astralis and Faze players at captain. Magisk and Dupreeh are the guys I’d look to on Astralis and Broky and Twistzz are the guys for Faze. None of them will likely have much ownership as even though they are favorites the Astralis guys all have middling FP/r. That doesn’t mean they can’t have big games though, and Astralis on LAN are still a force to be reckoned with.
That’s it for me, good luck Friday!