Thursday brings us another 2 game Pinnacle Cup slate. Lock is still at 10:00 am EDT, and the games are:
Endpoint (58% implied win probability) vs Havu
Spirit (60%) vs Fiend
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Havu have benched jemi, don’t play him. Disturbed, formerly the coach, has stepped into jemi’s spot. This is a little different from a typical “coach is playing” situation though, and Disturbed has been playing for over a month and over the time period actually has better stats than jemi had before he was benched. Either way, Disturbed playing is already baked into Vegas Odds, so they’re as accurate as they ever are.
I like this slate because we have 2 moderate favorites, and playing them together isn’t super easy. You have to either captain a bottom fragger or play 2 4th/5th fraggers to fit an Endpoint/Spirit 3/3. I expect a lot of people to go that route, which means Magixx, Chopper, Surreal and Mightymax should see a lot of ownership, particularly in cash/single entry. In cash it’s definitely a little scary to come off of either favorite, but in Single Entry I like the idea of running an underdog stack quite a bit.
I think Havu are the natural stack people will look to. They just beat Ence as a pretty big underdog, and Aerial’s price in particular is attractive. Plus, people are less likely to want to run a “T2” team stack against a “T1” team in Spirit. However, Spirit don’t have a clean 2-0 win since June 4th, and that was against a Brazilian team called “Imperial”. During that time they’ve played plenty of T2/3 teams as well, dropping maps to Entropiq, K23, 100PG, K23 again, and Sprout. Their record against T1 teams during that span is 1-6. All of this is to say I think they’re overrated by the DFS community as a whole because Mir is a fantasy stud (kind of a mini-S1mple/Zywoo effect of pulling ownership to his team and away from his opponent), and that the 60% Vegas gives them is probably about right.
It also helps that Fiend have a top 3 that should be clear. Of course, anything can happen, bubble top fragged last time they were on the slate, but typically it’s going to be h4rn, dream3r, and REDSTAR who are the players you want from Fiend. Those 3 also fit conveniently well with the Endpoint top fraggers, which is a build I like for small field/single entry.
If you’re playing double favorite you almost have to go value captain, but I’m honestly not a huge fan of that build. Per the Vegas odds at least one of the underdogs is going to win 65% of the time on the slate. Of course that’s just saying either one will win and we have to pick which one (or both) correctly, but I’d rather go for that upside and lower ownership. Given that I’m playing almost exclusively underdog lineups, I’m looking for raw points at captain. To me the guys who can get there on this slate are:
That’s pretty much going to be my captain pool unless I decide to run fav/fav (unlikely). Of that list, I really like Mezzi as he’s been dominant since returning to T2/3 play. Dream3r also stands out as he’s been crushing it lately, and should have pretty low ownership in the captain slot.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!