Welcome back. We have another Pinnacle Cup slate on Wednesday and sadly another slate that DK has cut early games off of, leaving us with only a 2 gamer. Lock is at 10 am EDT, and the games are:
Entropiq (56% implied win probability) vs Skade
Ence (75%) vs Havu
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Havu have benched jemi, don’t play him. Disturbed, formerly the coach, has stepped into jemi’s spot. This is a little different from a typical “coach is playing” situation though, and Disturbed has been playing for a month (699 rounds) and over the time period actually has better stats than jemi had before he was benched. Either way, Disturbed playing is already baked into Vegas Odds, so they’re as accurate as they ever are.
Allu has also been benched in favor of Hades. Hades has also been playing with Ence for a while so he’s fully incorporated into the team. Don’t play Allu.
On these two game slates where one game is a coinflip, we also always see the “real” underdog go virtually unowned. People lock in the big favorite (Ence) and spend their time deciding on who to play from the other game. For cash and single entry, this absolutely the correct play. Ence also have some decent value, both Snappi and doto score fairly well and are a bit underpriced. This frees up some cash to get top fraggers from the other game.
However, in GPP’s you should take a long look at Havu. According to Vegas they should win 1 out of every 4 times this slate is played. They’ll likely have way less ownership than those odds dictate they should. And if you do lock them in don’t fall into the trap of “well I have one underdog better take the favorite from the other game”, which a lot of people who do play Havu definitely will. That game is a complete toss-up, so if you’re playing several Havu lineups make sure you have exposure to both sides. Not much in DFS is worse than nailing the low owned underdog just to only have it paired with the wrong side of a coinflip.
Speaking of that coinflip, I do think it’s just that, a coinflip. Skade just won 2-0 on July 3rd, but both maps were close and prior to that had won 2 straight series. Lack1 has gone from super overpriced to now being underpriced, as he’s gone from the top to the bottom of Entropiq’s pricing. He makes for a solid play if you’re trying to fit multiple studs from Ence. If you’re playing the Ence bottom fraggers or Havu though, you can focus on the studs from Entropiq/Skade. For Skade that’s Dennyslaw, who’s actually pulled ahead in FP/r by a pretty large margin lately, rainwaker, and shipz. Duplicate and Oxygen aren’t THAT far behind that they’ll never crack the top 3, but there’s a decent (.1 FP/r) gap between 3rd and 4th (shipz and Duplicate).
The Entropiq side is a little more complicated. El1an is far and away the top play, but behind him it’s a jumbled mess. Forester is a bit ahead of the pack in 2nd, but realistically the 2-5 fraggers could be in any order. This presents a nice opportunity to leave some salary on the table in GPP’s, particularly when you’re playing Ence + Entropiq. Playing Nickelback when you have money for Krad in your last spot barely changes your projected score at all, but it will make you much more unique. Same goes for playing Lack1 over Krad or Nickelback.
In cash the safe thing to do is go with someone from Ence at captain. Spinx stands out to me as the best play. He scores a high FP/r, isn’t crazy expensive, and has really high upside if you’re playing some WTA’s or SE tournaments. If you want to avoid playing both Doto and Snappi you could captain one of them (preferably Doto) to try to get to Spinx + Hades or Dycha in your flex.
In GPP’s, I like El1an a lot. He has huge upside and can score really well in a lost map, so a 3 map series means he can put up a huge score. On the other side, like I mentioned before, Dennyslaw has really separated himself at the top for Skade. He’s my favorite captain play from them.
For Havu, I really only like Aerial. You’re already getting unique by playing Havu, you don’t have to get cute and use one of their bottom fraggers at captain. I guess if you’re running a lot of Havu lineups Xseven is worth a couple captain slots, but that’s basically as deep as I’d go, even if you lock HAVU in MME (which I am not recommending, to be clear).
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!