We have another early morning 4 game slate from the 9 to 5 tournament. While it’s still pretty low tier CS, we’re at least getting familiar with most of these teams, as many of them are playing in both the Nine to Five and the Malta Vibes tournaments.
Yesterday, the chalk hit, like all of the chalk. That’s going to happen every now and then, when it does you just have to move on to the next slate. To make matters worse, a 3 stack won the “big” GPP, for only the 3rd time in 20 contests. Hopefully this encourages more people to run 3 stacks tonight, as I still feel strongly that we gain an edge on the field by limiting our play to 2 stacks.
Pricing on today’s slate looks marginally better than yesterday, but there are still some head-scratchers. Surreal ($5200) grades out as the overall best value. He has been Endpoint’s 3rd best player in terms of fantasy points per round over both the last 3 months and the last month, yet he is priced like their worst. The odds have Endpoint at just under a coin-flip to win against Alternate Attax (they did lose 2-1 on Monday), yet somehow Surreal is the 2nd cheapest player on the whole slate.
On the other side of the same matchup, we highlighted slaxz- as being underpriced when he was $7000. He then proceeded to go out and score over 75, putting himself into the tournament winning lineup. Naturally, DK decided to DROP his price by $400 after that performance, as he now sits at $6600. Granted, Alternate Attax were bigger favorites yesterday, but still. Wouldn’t you know it, his teammate mirbit is still underpriced too. He at least was given a bump in price, up to a whopping $6200, but he still comes in well underpriced. Except these two to be just as chalky as yesterday (both were over 30% owned).
Lastly, Ax1le from Gambit Youngsters is also underpriced at $7000. Overshadowed by his teammate S1mple Jr. aka Sh1ro, Ax1le actually has the 3rd most points per round over the past 3 months on the whole slate. Somehow, he comes in tied for 16th most expensive on the slate. He’ll surely be popular as will his teammate Sh1ro, as GY is far and away the biggest favorite on the slate.
With 3 games very tightly contested in terms of odds I do expect ownership to be fairly spread out outside of the aforementioned plays. My favorite stacks on the day are Team Secret and Hard Legion. Both look to be underowned relative to their win equity, as Secret is a slight favorite and Hard Legion a slight underdog against Avez. Kei will undoubtedly be popular again for Avez, which should help keep Hard Legion’s ownership down. It is worth noting that for Secret, they are adding Mali to their lineup for the first time. His numbers so far in his career look outstanding and he therefore projects very well. It is worth noting, however, that he is very inexperienced, and many of his big performances have come against even lower tiers of team’s than he’ll be facing as a member of Team Secret. I will have some exposure to him in my Secret stacks, but I will be manually limiting my overall exposure to him.
I don’t think we need to go with any full fades today, just recognize that stacking Gambit Youngsters with Alternate Attax and/or Avez (Kei in particular) is likely to be very popular. I’ll be mixing and matching my stacks, running 2-2-2’s and 2-2-1-1’s, and again plan on being over the field on both team Secret and Hard Legion in particular.
*UPDATE* I’m not getting as much Secret as I initially thought I would since I’m limiting my Mali exposure. My top 2 used stacks on the night are looking like they’ll be Gambit Youngsters and Hard Legion.
Good luck out there tonight!