After the first day without a CSGO slate in as long as I can remember, we’re back on Tuesday with a 2 gamer from the Pinnacle Cup. All the teams are pretty familiar, we aren’t too deep into the T3 and lower slate. Lock is at 7 am EDT and the games are:
Entropiq (69% implied win probability) vs Havu
Fiend (66%) vs Mibr
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Havu have benched jemi, don’t play him. Disturbed, formerly the coach, has stepped into jemi’s spot. This is a little different from a typical “coach is playing” situation though, and Disturbed has been playing for a month (699 rounds) and over the time period actually has better stats than jemi had before he was benched. Either way, Disturbed playing is already baked into Vegas Odds, so they’re as accurate as they ever are.
Pricing isn’t too tight, especially with the glaring mispricing within Entropiq. Not only has Lack1 not been the best player for Entropiq, he’s actually last on the team in FP/r over both 1 month and 3 months, yet he’s priced at the top of the team. This pushes everyone else down a slot, so realistically everyone else on the team is at least a bit underpriced. Between that and Havu’s coach playing I expect Entropiq to be super high owned, even more than they should be given the odds. I like Havu in GPP’s, and I also don’t mind Lack1 if you’re trying to get unique in the $10. He makes your lineups super un-optimal if you’re trying to fit him with Fiend, but if you’re running some Mibr lineups? Get nuts and run some Lack1 back in your other stack.
Speaking of Fiend and MiBR, I think this game is a bit more of a toss-up than the odds imply. Mibr hasn’t had great results lately, but they’ve played a lot of good teams fairly close (like losing in double OT to Spirit, and they should’ve won in regulation). Beating Fiend, who themselves have been struggling lately, is definitely feasible. MiBR are also an explosive squad, their players get a ton of 4k’s and aces, so if they do win they should score well. Boltz and chelo are the top fraggers in terms of FP/r, but yel can also get hot on his AWP.
On the Fiend side, they have something of a “big 3” in Dream3r, h4rn, and REDSTAR. They are far and away the top 3 scorers, V1c7or and bubble lag way behind. You can move down to get different in GPP’s, but for any cash/single entry, you probably want those top 3. Entropiq score much flatter as a team (outside of El1an), so they are the better choice to play bottom fraggers on if you want to play both favorites.
Pricing is loose enough that I want top fraggers at captain. El1an is the clear top fragger for Entropiq, he’s far and away the top captain if you can fit him. Forester or Krad are fine options in GPP’s, and even Nickelback is worth a look in the $10, although you don’t really NEED the savings he provides this slate.
From Fiend, it’s that big 3 of dream3r, h4rn, and REDSTAR that all score similarly (and very well). Any of them are fine captain options.
On the underdogs, I like Aerial and Xseven at captain. They’re most likely to go off if Havu win. If you’re going all in on Havu for some reason (which to be clear I’m not recommending), then Zoree can also have huge games on the back of his AWP. I won’t get to him at captain unless I’m running 10+ HAVU captain lineups though.
Boltz and Chelo again stand out at captain from Mibr. And when I run Mibr I’m likely to want to use them at captain because like I mentioned before their individuals put up tons of 4k’s and aces. Over the past month Mibr have a map record of 7-19, good for a ~27% win rate. No one else on the slate has worse than 53%. Boltz and Chelo STILL have the most 4k’s + aces per round on the slate over the past month. The upside here is huge.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!