4 game slates of CS:GO are back! That’s the good news, the bad news is that it starts at 3:00 am EST and probably because of that Draftkings has made the contests tiny. The “big” GPP is a $10 entry $20k prize pool $5k to first. But hey, at least it’s not a 2 game Bo1 slate.
If you haven’t yet, I’d recommend reading my post on how to take down a GPP on 4+ game slates especially since it’s been a while we’ve had one.
Digging into the slate, it looks like Alternate Attax and Avez are going to be the chalk. They are the two biggest favorites on the slate, plus they have some pretty egregious pricing. Mirbit in particular is far too cheap at $5600. Over the past 3 months, he is averaging basically the same points per round as his teammate stfn, but stfn is $8200. He’s averaging slightly more than Sergiz from Crazy, who is $7800 as an underdog. Staying with Alternate Attax, slaxz- is also far too cheap at $7000. He is averaging the 6th most points per round over the last 3 months on the whole slate, is a massive favorite, yet comes in as the 17th (tied) most expensive player.
Avez is in a similar situation, with Kei ($7800), Kylar ($6800), and Byali ($7000) all underpriced given their recent performances and position as the 2nd largest favorite on the slate. The good news is that I think the players are so cheap that we will see a LOT of 3 stacks from these teams. By avoiding those 3 stacks we can get a big edge on the field, as we already know how difficult it is for 3 players on the same team to put up a tournament winning score. I don’t think we should be fully fading any of these players, but do keep in mind that they are going to be very highly owned, so you’ll need to differentiate somehow when you put 2 or more in your lineup.
With the pricing issues from AA and Avez, it’s likey that Syman and to a lesser extent AGF are going to go overlooked even as favorites. Syman all have very low 3 month average points per round. Their highest player (Mou) is lower than Alternate Attax 4th player (Mirbit) and not too far above their worst player (Scrunk). However, I think a large portion of this is because their 3 month map win rate is only 44%. They had played in some higher tier tournaments, got smoked, and therefore they all have pretty low scoring numbers. They are starting to come up if you look at their 1 month numbers, so I think we can take advantage of this. AGF don’t project quite as well as Avez or AA, and aren’t as mispriced. This should keep their ownership at 3rd highest on the night, but probably a decent amount lower than either of the top 2.
For underdogs today I like Wisla Krawkow. Not because I think they have a better shot to win than the other dogs, but because I think they’ll have lower ownership compared to their odds. They have barely been on any DK slates (if they’ve been on any at all it was one’s I must not have played) so they lack name recognition for hand building lineups, and are facing off against Avez, who will be very popular. Their odds give them a ~37% chance to win, and I think their ownership will come in pretty far under what it should be given those odds.
I don’t think you need to get as cute with playing all underdog lineups in bigger slates like you do in small ones, so most of my lineups will probably be some combination of either Avez or AA, Syman or AGF, and an underdog or two. Also, I will not be playing anyone on opposing sides of the same game, as I again don’t think you need to on these larger slates (unless there is a Zywoo or S1mple caliber player on the slate, which there isn’t today). It just adds too many more lineup combinations and you end up spread too thin.
Good luck tonight/this morning everyone!