We have yet another day of CIS RMR on Thursday, and another 4 game slate. We finally have a slate where there aren’t any huge favorites. The games on Thursday are:
k23 (68% implied win probability) vs 100PG
VP (57%) vs Entropiq
Gambit (57%) vs Navi
forZe (63%) vs Nemiga
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie is in the player pool, don’t play him. Everything else looks good.
I normally prescribe to the “trust Vegas” methodology, but what does 100PG have to do to get a little respect around here? So far in this tournament they’ve beaten VP, took a map off Entropiq, and took a map off Spirit. They’re also 3-5 in maps against k23 in the battle of Kazakhstan so far in 2021, but they won the most recent series 2-1 on June 20th. Suffices to say I think this game should be more like 60/40 or even 55/45 in k23’s favor. I expect 100PG to be low owned given that they’re the “biggest” underdog per the odds, I like them a lot in GPP’s.
Pricing as a whole is a lot looser than we’ve seen this week, so the rest of the underdogs will also likely be underowned, you don’t need them as much. I like El1an a lot both in stacks and as a one-off. iDisbalance and Lollipop21k are also solid plays. The only underdog I don’t really like are Navi outside of S1mple. S1mple will likely still come in a bit overowned, even with the matchup against Gambit. I’m happy to mostly fade him here and hope for the best.
Gambit themselves will likely come in a tiny bit under-owned because of the “S1mple/Zywoo effect”. Since it’s a 4 game slate I’m unlikely to run S1mple with Gambit, and most other people are as well, meaning Gambit won’t get as much ownership as they should because S1mple is hogging all of it from the game.
One kind of random aside is that I think Kensi is well underpriced. I’ll use a good amount of him even if I largely like the underdogs as a whole on the slate.
With pricing coming down across the board thanks to more even matchups, I’m back to looking for the top raw score on the slate in my captain spot. Players who I think can hit that score include:
Even though I like 100PG a lot as a stack, I actually don’t love smiley at captain. They’re a pretty balanced team while many others on the slate are top heavy, so I prefer them in the flex to at captain.
Good luck on Thursday!