***UPDATE*** 3:45 pm EDT Tuesday. phr has confirmed on Twitter that he will not be playing vs Wisla Krakow. This means it’s either Sobol or someone not on the slate playing for Pact. Shoutout to @kristofchalk on twitter (somanyrings in TESD discord) for his great detective work on this.
Draftkings has decided to give us a 3am EDT slate for “Wednesday”, presumably because these teams are better and much more well known than the teams playing at 9am EDT. I’m holding out hope that they’re doing this because they’re going to also give us a 1pm EDT ESEA slate, but as of now (3pm EDT on Tuesday) there’s only the one in the lobby so it’s what I’m writing about. The games are:
Anonymo (72% implied win probability) vs Honoris
Wisla Krakow (67%) vs Pact
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Sobol is apparently leaving Pact. They tweeted out that he was leaving on June 4th, but he was still playing today (Tuesday) in ESEA. HLTV has phr listed as playing in this game, but I don’t trust them quite as much for lower tier games as I do T1/2. If Sobol is in fact playing he’s super cheap at $4k, and would be a really good play. phr is only $4.6k, but doesn’t have nearly the stats that Sobol has (and hasn’t played a pro match in 3+ months). I’m hoping we get some definitive news before lock, but worst case you could earn yourself a pretty big edge by checking who’s in the server before lock and having 1 set of lineups ready to go if it’s Sobol and 1 if it’s phr (and maybe a 3rd just in case it’s neither of them).
Otherwise I don’t believe any of these teams subs, although after sonesb was subbed out for game 1 this morning anything is possible I suppose.
This slate is a tiny bit different than the last couple to me. The underdogs are definitely going to come in with super low ownership, but we’ve seen enough of these favorites to actually know they’re solid teams. And more importantly, Vegas also knows that so they’re able to set better lines. They’re both heavy favorites (I’m not sure if the WK vs Pact line is assuming Sobol plays or assuming he doesn’t play, if he’s not playing I think WK should be much heavier favorites), and rightfully so.
If Sobol doesn’t play, I like Honoris much better as an underdog. It has less to do with Honoris themselves and more to do with me wanting nothing to do with Pact. If Sobol does play, he’s close to a free square at $4k. I’d use him both in stacks or as a one-off.
As I always say, if you’re playing favorites, particularly if you’re playing double favorites, leaving money on the table is my favorite way to differentiate. Everyone outside of Mynio has the potential to top frag for Anonymo. WK have a typically much more clear spread, with Markos, Goofy, and Jedqr head and shoulders above ponczek and szpero, but on a 2 game slate going down at least one of the bottom two makes a lot of sense.
As I typically am on 2 game slates, I’m looking for my captain to be the top raw points scorer on the slate. I do think that all 4 non-mynio players on Anonymo have that upside, as do Markos, Goofy, and Jedqr.
From Honoris, reiko stands out from the crowd, and same goes for Sobol (if he plays) for Pact. If sobol isn’t playing I’m likely to avoid Pact entirely.
I’ll update here, on Discord, and/or on twitter if Sobol news comes out.
Good luck on Wednesday!