IEM Summer isn’t back until Friday, so we have more Spring Sweet Spring on Tuesday. It’s another 2 gamer with lock at 9am EDT. The games are:
Alternate Attax (60% implied win probability) vs Chetz
EC Brugge (62%) vs Ambush
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
STFN is on the slate, but he no longer plays for Alternate Attax. The rest of the player pool matches HLTV and none of these teams appear to sub.
I said it for Monday’s slate and I’ll say it again here, underdogs always go even more underowned than usual on these low tier slates. On Monday, Nexus was a 53/47 favorite, basically a coinflip. In the $10 Nexus had a cumulative 193% ownership while 4glory had 94.5%. That’s insane disparity for a game that is a coinflip.
Tuesday, we have two games that are slightly bigger than coinflip odds. Although keep in mind that Vegas is guess here way more than they are in T1 play so I doubt these lines are actually all that “sharp”. Of course, you’d have to watch a ton of low tier CS to actually take advantage of those odds, I don’t know which direction they’re wrong in frankly. What I do know is that Chetz and Ambush will inevitably come in ownership much lower than they should. That means I am going to play a lot of Chetz and Ambush, even together.
Pricing on all 4 teams is basically correct in terms of the order each team is in. I have entz ever so slightly ahead of swaggy in FP/r numbers as the number 2 fragger for Chetz, but it’s basically tied. Again, like I mentioned yesterday, leaving salary on the table, particularly when playing double favorites, is the best way to get different, besides playing underdogs, in GPP’s on 2 game slates. On this slate you can do that pretty easily with n0tice over stev0se or scrunk over prosus. Both sets of teammates score very similarly and the 4th fragger could easily outscore the 3rd fragger on any given day.
On 2 game slates I’m almost always looking for the top raw scorer in my captain slot. This slate is no different.
JayzaR is pretty clearly the top fragger for Chetz. When I run Chetz captain it’s most likely going to be him.
Ambush is a bit closer, Gringo and SoneSB are the “top” fraggers, but the whole team honestly has pretty bad recent numbers. I could see anyone besides probably SBT as their top fragger in a win.
From the favorites, Panix and Krimbo are the top fraggers for Alternate Attax by a decently wide margin. Necrogenes1s just joined ECB, but he looks to be their top fragger through a few maps. I like him or Matty at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!