With IEM Summer off until next weekend, we are back to Spring Sweet Spring on Monday. Not only is it Spring Sweet Spring but it’s “regionals” which are kind of the qualifiers to the main event. There’s teams I’ve never heard of playing in these things routinely. We have a 2 game slate on Monday with lock at 9am EDT. The games are:
Fiend (78% implied win probability) vs Onyx
Nexus (53%) vs 4glory
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Nexus currently has a 6 man roster. S0und is not on the slate, and based on his Twitter, it seems he’s sort of benched and also taking time off for exams. Nexus’ twitter did say that they are keeping a 6 man roster though. Launx is the player who has now joined the team in his place, he’s only 16 years old but could be very good as his career progresses.
The rest of the player pool matches what HLTV is showing.
In these low tier games, where no one, myself included, has watched much of these teams, Vegas odds tend to dictate ownership even more than usual. In this case we have one team people should recognize since they’ve been on a few slates recently, Fiend, and one more team that will at least seem to be familiar for people who have played a bunch of T3 slates in Nexus. However, this is not the Nexus of 2020 that climbed as high as 40th in HLTV’s rankings. They’ve really struggled this year and lost one of their best players in IM, who left for greener pastures.
It’s also worth mentioning that Onyx, the team Fiend are playing, do actually have a couple familiar names in Jr and Bondik. Both of them have played for some decent teams, and are making their debut for Onyx. Now while I’m not saying this makes Onyx the favorites or anything, I do think Onyx are a live underdog in the sense that 1/4 times this slate is run they probably come out and upset Fiend. They should have virtually no ownership, definitely less than their implied odds dictate they should have, I really like them in GPP’s.
I’d imagine that 4glory end up in the same boat, to a lesser extent. They’re basically in a coinflip vs Nexus, but since Nexus are the “favorite” and have the name recognition for hand builders to be drawn towards them, I’d expect the ownership to be on Nexus’ side by a wide margin.
Other than playing the underdogs, the other way to create unique lineup(s) is to leave money on the table. Let’s say you’re on your last lineup slot and you’ve got enough money for Redstar and also haven’t played Dreamer yet. Dreamer averages .69 fp/r over the past 3 months while Redstar averages .71 fp/r. If the series goes 90 rounds, based just on those numbers Redstar would outscore Dreamer by 1.8 fantasy points over the full 90 rounds. That’s barely over 1 kill, and obviously well with the range of variance to where Dreamer could easily outscore Redstar.
Speaking of which, leaving money on the table aside, Dreamer is my favorite play on the slate. He’s been on fire over the past month, averaging easily the most FP/r on the team at .85. Fiend have been playing a ton too, that’s a 1500 round sample size so it’s not like it’s a small sample bias. I’m going to play a good amount of Onyx, but all of my Fiend lineups will have Dreamer, he’s wildly underpriced.
Speaking of Dreamer, as I just mentioned he’s my favorite play on the slate, and that carries over to captain. If I played cash or single entry, he would 100% be the captain I go with for Monday’s slate. He comes at a steep discount to Redstar, a moderate discount to H4rn, and has outscored both of them by .1 fp/r over the past month. Of course, both Redstar and H4rn are solid choices at captain as well.
On the other side, in my Onyx lineups I’ll be looking to JR or Impulse as my captain.
In the other game, I think Xellow is far and away the best individual player. He’s the safest captain from that game, and shouldn’t have crazy high ownership. I mentioned it above, but Launx is only 16 years old. The hallmark of young players is inconsistency. He could put up a huge performance or he could look lost. The makes him a risky but high upside captain, I like him for GPP’s.
Lastly, for 4glory, c0llins and dee average very similar FP/r, but c0llins is quite a bit cheaper. That pushes me over the edge towards c0llins for my favorite play, but both are fine.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!