After two great 4 game slates, and I’m not just saying that because I won the $10 both days, ok maybe a little because of that, we’re back to a 2 gamer Saturday. I really wish DK wouldn’t cut off the early game, it’s only at 7:30 am EST it’s not like it’s a 4am start, but alas they seem committed to starting CSGO as late in the day as possible. Lock for the two games we do have is at 10:45 am EDT and the games are:
Spirit (54% implied win probability) vs VP
Gambit (72%) vs Col
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No recent roster changes for any of these teams, no sub risk*.
*Patsi has been playing on Spirit academy for a while now and he’s frankly too good for it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come up to the main team again at some point but there haven’t been any indications he’s going to.
We’re back to a Bo2, and pricing is moderately tight. Gambit are priced up to the point where I think they may actually end up a tiny bit underowned relative to their win probability. It’s fairly enticing to play BlameF, K0nfig, or hell even Poizon, at low low prices. I normally come in well over the field on underdogs, but I’ll likely be much closer to the field if not over it on Gambit Saturday than I usually am.
The Spirit/VP series I don’t really have a strong lean on one way or the other. I do think with Mir underpriced and Spirit as favorites, more of the ownership will flow towards Spirit, but it’s not like VP won’t have plenty of ownership since it’s a 2 game slate after all. I’ve said this the last couple slates VP was on, but if you run any 2-1’s, I don’t like Yekindar as a one-off. VP’s success is so dependent on his that if he’s playing well VP is also likely doing well so you’ll want to have a VP stack and not Yekindar as a one-off. It’s no coincidence that VP’s performance has started to slip at Yekindar has struggled lately. On the Spirit side, I imagine most people will go Mir, Degster, and then skip over the lower middle two (in terms of price) to go all the way down to Chopper. I like sdy and magixx both if you can make them fit in your lineups.
There’s not a crazy amount of value on this slate, so I’ll likely go a mix of value captains and raw points captains. Really the only players on the slate I’m not interested in at captain are Rush, Sanji, and Interz. Everyone else I’ll at least have in my player pool.
I do like Hobbit a lot after he flopped (relatively speaking) on Friday. Axile went huge and Sh1ro was solid, which will likely lead to slight bumps in their ownership. I do feel like CSGO is one of the least reactionary DFS games out there, but it’s not completely immune to recency bias.
I also like getting up to Degster. I think most people will take the Mir savings and call it a day a captain, but Degster has just as much if not more upside.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!