Welcome back! IEM Summer 2021 continues Friday, with another great 4 game slate. This time though, it’s Bo3’s. Lock is at 10:45 am EDT and the games are:
FPX (52% implied win probability) vs Complexity
Heroic (78%) vs EG
Gambit (68%) vs Astralis
OG (50.5%) vs VP
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No recent roster changes for any of these teams, no sub risk.
Going from the Bo1 slate to the Bo3 slates means that I’ll shift back to a primarily 3/2/1 lineup structure, instead of running a mix of 3/2/1 and 2/2/2. Bo3’s open the door for a lot more RnP, the sweep bonus, and if Players A and B have a great map on Map 1, Players A and C can have great maps on Map 2 and all 3 put up really strong scores overall. It’s hard for 3 players on the same team to all have a great map on the same map.
As for the slate itself, we have two heavy favorites and two coinflips. The chalk construction, like it is every Heroic slate, will be cheap Heroic with expensive players from the other big favorite, in this case Gambit. Refrezh is again way too cheap, like he is literally every single day, and Friday Sjuush joins him as being underpriced. Every day, Teses and Cadian come in with low ownership, and while they may not have the highest average fantasy points, they’re 7th and 8th on the slate in FP/r over the past 3 months, they definitely have great upside and can put up huge numbers. Almost every day I come in under the field on cheap Heroic and over the field on expensive Heroic, I plan to be land there again Friday.
I expect EG and Astralis to both have minimal ownership. I’m not as keen on EG stacks as I was on Thursday, I’ll definitely have a few out of my 70 lineups but nothing crazy, but I do still like Michu and oBo one-offs. EG are still priced like Brehze is their best player, but he hasn’t been lately. This pushes oBo and Michu down the price charts, and makes them solid value plays. Both have proved capable of putting up good numbers even in EG losses.
Astralis I’m less interested in. With Device gone, no one really scores well for fantasy, their best player over the past 3 months, Magisk, checks in at 20th on the slate in FP/r. They spread their points out really evenly. Magisk and Dupreeh are definitely the best targets if you want to force Astralis, but I’m okay with mostly fading them, even in MME. You can be contrarian just by not playing Gambit, you don’t have to play Astralis. I’ll probably have a few lineups with Astralis myself because the way I build forces exposure to every team, but they’re my least favorite team to stack on this slate.
I’m very interested to see where ownership lands on the two coinflips. On the one hand, Vegas odds are usually super important in determining ownership, but people love playing Col and Jame likely projects as the best player in the OG/VP game for most people. Plus in either matchup the odds could swing to the other side at any moment. My guess is that FPX are going to come in underowned. They’ve been playing really well since they brought Emi back as IGL, and they just dumpstered Col on May 25th. Farlig and Zehn are too cheap, and Maden has top tier upside as well. I like FPX a lot as a pivot off cheap Heroic.
On the Col side, Poizon’s struggles have made them look like a T2 team. He’s shown some life lately, going positive in 5 out of his last 7 matches, but every single one of those matches was against either Sprout or Anonymo, not exactly T1 competition. If Col are going to win though, Poizon will mostly likely have to play well, so I do like including him in Col stacks.
I don’t really have a stance on VP/OG. My plan is to play both sides a bunch, as I really do think it’s a coinflip. If you’re a single entry player, maybe just avoid it? It’s a 4 game slate so you dont HAVE to force anyone from this game. Jame is definitely the safest play, as he saves so much that even in losses he usually performs fine. I’d be careful with playing Yekindar as a one-off as well. He’s been struggling a bit lately, and he entries so much that VP’s success and his success pretty much directly correlate (see their recent drop in win %). If VP lose it’s likely because he isn’t playing well, so if I’m playing Yekindar I’m inherently betting that VP are doing well in which case I’d most likely also want at least Jame in my lineup.
On the OG side, everyone is viable at their prices. Aleksib never has much ownership, but he’s quietly been playing pretty well lately. He easily outscores Niko, both in 3 month FP/r and 1 month, and his 1 month has actually crept passed FlameZ as well (and is only .03 behind Valde).
Again, there’s plenty of value, so I’m looking for raw points at captain. Of course, a few of the guys who can get there in terms of raw points are also fairly cheap, so in that sense I’ll have some “value” captain. My favorite plays at captain are:
Keep in mind that Sh1ro and Axile will likely be fairly popular at captain, so you’ll want to go more contrarian elsewhere in your lineup.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!