Wednesday brings us another 4 game slate from CIS RMR. Lock is at 10 am EDT again and the games are:
Nemiga (70% implied win probability) vs Akuma
Spirit (83%) vs 100PG
Navi (71%) vs forZe
VP (70%) vs k23
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie is in the player pool, don’t play him. Dukefissura also missed 100PG’s games on Tuesday. Those games were NOT from the RMR event, just another tournament 100PG are in. There is barely any social media presence from the team, so I wasn’t able to find anything on if he just couldn’t play Tuesday or if this is a more permanent move. It’s not like he was a great play anyways, so the easiest move here is just eliminate him from your player pool.
Also, it appear Akuma are going to disband. Apparently both Sensei and j3kie posted that they are looking for a team on Tuesday night. There is a non-zero chance that they just forfeit this match against Nemiga. Fortunately, this is the first match of the day, but it’s happened before that we didn’t find out about a forfeit until right before lock. I’d make a set of lineups with and without this game to be safe.
With no Nickelback on the slate we’re left with Chopper and Magixx as the chalk value plays. Both of them score much better than the bottom 2 fraggers on any of the other favorites. I guess you could pivot to Buster + Sanji or Perfecto + Boomb4l, but I’d only do that in GPP lineups.
I’m sure B1t will also see a spike in ownership after his huge showing Tuesday. I’m not expecting a repeat and so while I think he’s a fine play in a vacuum I think he’s going to be overowned.
Assuming their game plays, iDisbalance is underpriced by at least $1,000. He and Lollipop21k might go somewhat overlooked given that s1mple, mir, and Jame are all on the slate, but both have big upside. If Akuma does play they will likely play fairly sloppily and unmotivated knowing that they are about to disband.
Of the underdogs, forZe are my favorite. It seems fairly likely they’ll pick Ancient, where they looked pretty good against Gambit on Tuesday. That map being new introduces a lot of uncertainty and they could steal it away from Navi. From there anything is possible and really they’re so cheap that you only may need the one map. It’s also worth noting Almazer seems to play a really solid role on the map, making him more attractive as a one-off than he normally would be.
This slate is a bit like Monday. I’d love to be able to fit S1mple/Mir/Jame, but with a relative lack of value I’m more likely to move to the value captains. Chopper and Magixx are my favorites, but both will likely carry some decent ownership.
I’m hopeful iDisbalance doesn’t end up too highly owned at captain, I like him a lot as he saves a bit of money but still offers that high end upside.
If I do have money for an expensive captain, I prefer Jame and Mir to S1mple, since they’re both more expensive than him their captain ownership (and overall ownership) should be suppressed quite a bit.
Good luck on Wednesday!