IEM Summer 2021 kicks off Thursday with 8 Bo1 matchups. DK has cut that in half, giving us a nice 4 game slate. Lock is at 8:15 am EDT and the games are:
Heroic (84% implied win probability) vs Imperial
Spirit (66%) vs EG
NiP (53%) vs OG
VP (63%) vs Fnatic
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Fnatic have added a 6th man, Peppzor, to their roster, but they have yet to play him. I’d be very surprised if he makes his debut here. From the sounds of it he’s not likely to debut for a few months.
After several months of really rough numbers, NiP have sent Ztr back down to the junior squad and have called up LNZ instead. LNZ has pretty mediocre numbers playing for Young Ninjas, although it’s worth noting that Young Ninjas have played slightly better competition lately. Still, he’s taking a big step up moving to big team.
EG recently replaced Tarik with Michu, but the results haven’t followed. They’re back in Europe after getting smacked in their return to NA.
Lastly, not that Imperial have been on any slates, but Fer has made his return to competitive CSGO. A lovely matchup with Heroic awaits him and the rest of the team.
Tarik, ISSAA, and Nawwk are all on the slate. Don’t play any of them.
As these games are Bo1, this slate is going to be even more unpredictable than usual. Keep that in mind while building lineups. I also think it makes a 2-2-2 build a bit better than 3-2-1, as there won’t be nearly as much RnP and of course no sweep bonus (this is just my gut feel). I’ll likely run a bit of each build in MME.
The only team I’m not at all interested in stacking is Imperial, I’ll maybe have a couple one-offs from them and that’s about it. Heroic are just too good. I do like all the other underdogs on the slate though. As usual there’s some underpriced Heroic players so it’s not too hard to make lineups using only favorites.
Of the underdogs, I particularly like EG. Michu and oBo have been performing well even in losses, and both are super cheap, Michu in particular. If they can even get 12ish rounds those guys could put up good enough scores to be a strong value. If EG wins they’re almost guaranteed to put up strong point per dollar scores. Brehze is of course also viable, but he’s been struggling lately. EG did recently part ways with their coach, but I doubt they’ve had time to make wholesale changes quite yet.
I expect super low ownership on Fnatic as well. Krimz has really fallen off a cliff lately, he’s down to a distant 3rd in FP/r over the past 3 months. While he’s not a bad play in Fnatic stacks, don’t be baited into using him as a one-off because of his cheap price. Brollan has been the best player lately, followed by Jackinho.
OG are underpriced as a whole. FlameZ, Niko, and even AleksiB are all cheaper than they should be given that this game is basically a coinflip. Plus NiP are incorporating a new player in LNZ. I think OG should be slight favorites here instead of underdogs. It’s not a huge difference in terms of the odds, but it likely will lead to a big difference in ownership, as I’d expect NiP to be much more owned than OG.
Speaking of NiP, how do we treat LNZ’s numbers? He has fairly average numbers for Young Ninjas, and they’re been fairly average in terms of win percentage. When I build lineups I use recent win percentage compared to Vegas odds to modify projections. This usually works well when teams/players are making big steps up in competition as their recent win percentage is way higher than their Vegas odds, and thus there projection is lowered quite a bit. This isn’t the case with LNZ. However, I do expect him to struggle a bit with the transition, Ztr had decent numbers for Young Ninjas too. I’ve settled on decreasing LNZ’s numbers from Young Ninjas by 25% to project him for NiP. I expect him to end up with moderate ownership, but I’m going to be full fading in his debut. Of course, with it only being one map, all it takes is 2 or 3 big rounds and he has a good day, but I think he’ll come in with too much ownership. Device, Rez, and Hampus are my targets from NiP.
Let’s talk Heroic for a minute. Every slate they are on Refrezh and usually Sjuush or Stavn are underpriced, and Cadian and Teses are overpriced. This leads to high ownership on Refrezh and whoever else is cheap and low, relative to their high win odds, ownership on Cadian and Teses. This makes Cadian and Teses great tournament plays almost every slate Heroic is on, and today is no different. I expect a bunch of players to have higher ownership than either of them.
Sdy is underpriced for Spirit. He’s the 3rd fragger, but is at the bottom of the pricing. Granted it’s only by a couple hundred (side note, why can’t DK price Heroic like they did Spirit?), but he still shouldn’t be cheapest. He makes for a nice stacking partner with Degster and/or Mir.
VP have scuffled a bit lately, and it’s been largely on the back of Yekindar struggling. He’s lost more opening duels than he’s won over the past month, and VP really relies on him opening rounds. Buster has actually overtaken him in FP/r over the past month (Yekindar is still solidly ahead over 3 months). I’ll use Jame as a one-off or in stacks, but I won’t use Yekindar as a one-off. I like him in stacks because of VP wins it usually means he does well, and a VP stack is obviously banking on them winning.
There’s enough value on this slate that I’m looking for raw points at my captain slot. The guys I like for that are:
I’m not likely to use much of Fnatic and definitely won’t use Imperial at captain. If I MME I might have a few value captains, but I’m mainly looking for raw points on this slate.
Good luck on Thursday!