We’re back with another 4 game slate on Tuesday, again from CIS RMR. Lock is at 10 am EDT again, and the games are:
Navi (85% implied win probability) vs Akuma
Entropiq (67%) vs k23
Spirit (51%) vs VP
Gambit (74%) vs forZe
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Don’t play Flamie. Everything else looks good.
Who’s ready for Nickelback chalk part 2? After putting up an absolutely monstrous performance on Monday (and Sunday for that matter but they played like 15 OT’s) DK has gone ahead and raised Nickelback’s price by…what’s that? They DROPPED it by $800??? Sure, Entropiq aren’t as big of favorites, but Nickelback is priced like a truly “bottom” fragger when in reality his .54 FP/r over 3 months isn’t bad by any means and barely trails 3rd and 4th on the team. His .57 FP/r over the past month is good for 4th on the team, again barely trailing both 2nd and 3rd. Nickelback is definitely not a “bad” play on this slate, so go ahead and eat some chalk if you want to and differentiate elsewhere.
While I don’t think Nickelback is a bad play, I also don’t think we “need” to play him as much as we did on Monday. Monday there were 4 huge favorites, and very limited value options. On Tuesday we have a coinflip game that isn’t priced too insanely, and Entropiq’s opponents, k23, are themselves a “live” dog in the sense that they at least have a 1/3 shot to win per Vegas. While on Monday we need Chopper/Magixx AND Nickelback, on Tuesday Chopper/Magixx are viable pivots off of Nickelback, or you can run k23. There are pivots available if you want them.
For the favorites, I would expect that ownership on the studs will go S1mple > Gambit Big 3 > Jame > El1an > Mir. I’m less confident in the Jame/El1an/Mir trio order though, I think they could all be close. Regardless, all 3 represent nice pivots off of S1mple and the Gambit trio, I like them all for GPPs.
I did also want to mention that I like Kensi and everyone on Akuma as one-offs. Kensi is in basically the same situation as Nickelback where even though he’s technically the “bottom fragger” he puts pretty solid fantasy numbers and is basically free. Akuma are similarly underpriced, and if they can win a map at least one player should put up strong value overall.
Since there are a few more options for value on Tuesday, I’m going to try to pay for upside at captain. Granted Nickelback technically has as much upside as anyone given that we just saw him for +32 in a 3 map series, but I’m not expecting a repeat. I like S1mple and the Gambit big 3, but just like in the flex I’m going to use a bunch of El1an/Mir. I do think Jame might see elevated captain ownership since he saves you a bit of money.
I also like norbert quite a bit in k23 lineups. He has truly elite fantasy numbers but comes at a discounted price of only $7k. Nafany and sdy are also interesting midrange options from within the favorites.
If you go value captain, my favorite is Magixx. His one month numbers (granted only a ~400 round sample size) are really good, he’s brought his FP/r all the way up to .65. He’s also super young, so this could just be a natural development in his game as he comes into his own, or it could just be a hot streak/variance.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!