Welcome! On Monday we have a 4 game slate from the CIS region. All 4 games have a heavy favorite, but pricing is super tight to make up for that. The games are:
Entropiq (83% implied win probability) vs 100PG
Gambit (88%) vs Akuma
Spirit (77%) vs k23
Navi (85%) vs Nemiga
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Rosters appear correct, no sub risk. With this being an RMR event we hopefully shouldn’t have to worry about last minute news/standins, as this tournament is crucial for everyone involved.
Something to keep in mind is that even with all these teams being such big favorites, there’s only a ~48% chance they all win. Of course, the hard part is figuring out which one loses, but it’s worth noting nonetheless.
My expectation is that Spirit value (Chopper and Magixx), Interz, and Entropiq value (Nickelback and Lack1) end up with a lot of ownership. All of them except Interz players score decently well and provide much needed salary savings. Finding a way to move off of them is a solid strategy for GPPs. Axile is also underpriced, and will likely be super high owned. I don’t think you “have” to fade him, or any of the value plays I mentioned, but they will be high owned. Mix in some low owned plays to differentiate your lineups when you use the chalky guys.
At the very top, with guys like S1mple and Sh1ro on the slate I expect El1an to go somewhat overlooked. I like him a lot in GPPs.
Of the underdogs, people just saw 100PG beat VP, I imagine that will get them a little bit of extra ownership amongst hand-builders on Monday. Of course, most of the field uses lineup builders, but I still will likely pick other underdogs because of that slight bump. I like Sensei, norbert, and iDisbalance all as one-offs. These are guys who can put up big scores even in a (close) loss and can outscore the favorite-bottom-fraggers priced near them. In GPP’s I’m sure I’ll have a few stacks of underdogs, but I do mostly prefer them as one-offs on this slate.
On slates like this I think the key is to focus on running good lineup construction. Too many people do really wonky stuff to fit an extra stud, and it usually backfires. Stick to your 3/2/1’s or 2/2/2’s (no opponents, if you saw my lineup that I made hungover on Sunday that accidentally had opponents in it, no you didn’t) and let other people make mistakes.
With the lack of value on the slate I expect captain ownership to be squished into the mid-range players. Axile sticks out like a sore thumb here, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the highest owned captain on the slate. Degster makes for a nice pivot, as he’s priced right above Axile.
After Axile, captain ownership should be super spread out. I don’t think S1mple, Sh1ro, and Mir will end up with a ton of ownership, but it’s so hard to fit them that I doubt I’ll have a ton of them either.
There are so many good plays at the high end that I’m pretty likely to run a lot of value captain. Chopper, Magixx, Nickelback, and Lack1 all have decent upside and let you jam maybe one more stud into your lineup.
Good luck on Monday!