We’re back on Tuesday with another 2 game slate. I get why DK chose the Gamers Without Borders tournament, it’s definitely the best teams who play on Tuesday, but it’s unfortunate that we don’t get another 4 game slate from SWS. Lock is fairly early at 7:30 am EDT, and the games are:
NiP (82% implied win probability) vs MiBR
Mouz (70%) vs Ence
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Player pool is correct, for anyone who hasn’t seen Ence play lately, Allu has taken a step back from the team and Hades has replaced him. This wasn’t super recent, Ence has played a bunch of times since making the change.
This is a pretty boring slate as far as the actual CS games go. MiBR are coming off their first game in 5 weeks where they promptly got 2-0’d by Iberian Family and now have to face NiP. Meanwhile, Mouz clearly outclass Ence (I think the 70% implied win probability is a bit low, although I of course subtract 3% for the Vig so it’s not a great value to actually bet). Sure, in GPP’s the underdogs will be underowned, but I really don’t expect either to win. If you’re MME’ing, take a few shots at the dogs.
Pricing is also very odd within the favorites. Frozen $1k above Ropz? Rez $1k above Device? That’s going to lead to some chalk. Not to jump the gun but I’d expect Ropz captain to be super popular, you can fit it fairly easily with some of the value. Meanwhile, Rez and Frozen will likely see their overall ownership, and particularly captain ownership, depressed because of being so expensive. I like them both as GPP plays.
My favorite GPP play from within the favorite is Bymas. Ropz, Frozen, and Acor will garner plenty of ownership, and those in need of savings will likely skip right over Bymas to get all the way down to Dexter. Dexter has been playing really well lately, so I don’t think he’s a bad play by any means, but I don’t think that’s exactly a secret anymore. I expect him to have higher ownership than Bymas.
From NiP, the question is can LNZ make it a 3rd straight very good fantasy game? I am personally going to die on the hill that he’s not good (yet, he could very well develop into an excellent player over his career) and that the past two matches are the exception not the rule. It just doesn’t make any sense for someone who was averaging in the .5’s in FP/r to take a huge step up in competition and suddenly perform better. I’ll be back fading LNZ again.
I expect that Plopski and Hampus will get a lot of ownership. My expectation is that people prioritize the Mouz studs ahead of the NiP “studs” because well, NiP doesn’t really have any studs in terms of DFS. I like Rez a lot for that reason in GPP’s. Plus, Rez and Device (although Device still will almost doubtlessly have higher ownership than his stats dictate because he’s still viewed as a star) naturally lead you towards builds that include Bymas.
If you want to one-off an underdog to save salary/be unique, I actually like the MiBR players better even though they are the bigger underdogs. The reason for that is that they play a style that favors explosive individual plays. Their players always seem to lead the slate in 4k’s/aces (when normalized for rounds played). One could easily pick up a couple 4k’s or an ace and boost his fantasy points into the conversation even in a 2-0 loss. I like everyone on MiBR as a one-off except for exit.
On the Ence side, I think Hades and Spinx are fine one-offs. I don’t like Dycha as much because he plays (or at least did last time I was watching Ence, I admittedly haven’t seen them in a while) a super aggressive role. When he’s successful the team tends to be successful (same logic as when I talk about Yekindar). The path to him having a top 3 score from the game while Ence loses badly enough that 2 Mouz players are the rest of the top 3 seems narrow enough that I don’t want to go down it. If I stack Ence, Dycha would be an integral piece of those stacks.
I already mentioned it, but I think Ropz is going to have a ton of captain ownership. He’s definitely too cheap, and if you’re playing cash I don’t see how you move off him at captain. In GPP’s though, it’s worth looking at other options.
One of my favorite GPP moves is to captain players who are good, but overpriced relative to other good players. Both Frozen and Rez fall into that category on Tuesday. The price tends to keep ownership way down while the upside remains in tact. I prefer Frozen to Rez, but I’d have some of each in MME.
I also don’t think value captain is out of the question on this slate. I again like Bymas best, his captain ownership should be basically non-existent, but I don’t mind Dexter, Hampus, or even Plopski either.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!