We have yet another 2 game slate on Thursday, as Draftkings continues to inexplicably cut off the early game. Lock is at 9:30 am EDT and the games are:
Gambit (73% implied win probability) vs Complexity
Navi (64%) vs Big
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Flamie is back in the player pool, don’t play him. Everything else looks good.
DK have finally swapped Ax1le and Hobbit’s positions within Gambit’s pricing. I expect this will lead to a bit more ownership on Hobbit as he’s now the “cheap” one but I’m sure he’ll still come in underowned. Especially since people are going to be jamming in both Sh1ro and S1mple. If you do that with one at captain, you basically need to go for value in the rest of the lineup.
For what it’s worth, I do think this line is a bit too big in the Gambit/Col series. I think it should be more like 65/35 in Gambit’s favor. It’s not a huge difference, but it’s enough that I think Col will come in underowned. Ownership will likely go Gambit > Navi > Big > Col. I imagine a Syrson or Tabsen one off will be fairly popular since both are pretty cheap and the role players on Navi aren’t the most attractive names to click on. K0nfig went off on Tuesday, and while it remains to be seen if this was a one-off game or the start of another hot streak, but if it is a hot streak Col can definitely take down Gambit.
In the Navi/Big game, Big are also definitely live. I doubt many people will fade S1mple, and if you do and Big sweeps you could put yourself ahead of almost the whole field by fading him. I do think Navi as a team are exploitable on Ancient, after failing to win a T-side round their Wednesday, however I don’t think Big are the team to do it. The only time they played Ancient they lost. To LDLC.
S1mple and Sh1ro will no doubt be the chalk. Both have insane upside and I wouldn’t fault you for playing either one. I expect both Ax1le and Hobbit to come in fairly low owned. My expectation is that people either pay all the way up or all the way down.
I don’t think this is the worst slate to go value captain. If interz or Perfecto go for 60-70 it could be worth playing them at captain to fit some extra studs. However, I’m more interested in underdog captains. I already mentioned K0nfig above, I like him a lot at captain on Thursday. He should have very little ownership and we know his ceiling is insane. BlameF is also solid at captain.
I’m less interested in running a captain from Big, but Xantares and Syrson are both in my player pool. Again, both should have low low ownership.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!