Draftkings has unfortunately decided to cut off the early game from Blast Premier, leaving us with a 2 game slate that locks at 9:30 am EDT. The games are:
Navi (71% implied win probability) vs Faze
NiP (54%) vs EG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Coldzera is out for Faze, Olof is back in for the time being at least. The player pool has been updated to reflect this and there are no extra players in it.
There are a couple spots we can take advantage of on this slate. Brehze remains mispriced for EG. It seems like he has slotted into Tarik’s old role of super aggro entry fragger. He’s definitely getting more comfortable in the role, but he dies a ton and doesn’t get many multikills. I’d only use him over Stan within EG.
On the other side, LNZ is overpriced. He’s flashed a bit of talent at times so you can see why the team is giving him a chance, but he goes silent for loooong stretches. On Mirage Tuesday he had 6 kills after 3 rounds and ended the half with 8 kills. He’s way overpriced because his projections are based on stats that were largely accrued against much worse competition.
In the earlier game, the question is how will Faze look? While Olof is a familiar face of course, Karrigan brought in a completely new system when he took over as IGL (the two did play together for a few months at the end of 2017, although I’m sure Karrigan’s system has changed over the years), so he may not be all that integrated into the team. Ironically, right before he stepped back Olof looked as good as he has in years for Faze. However, he was playing a favorable for DFS role and he may not be as he steps back into the team. However, he’s super cheap at $4.4k and worth a look if you MME.
Navi are really the only team where I don’t think there’s anything to take advantage of, which is unfortunate since they are the biggest favorites. Their pricing looks pretty solid so I’ll be focusing on the other 3 teams to differentiate my lineups.
S1mple stands out above the field at captain, as will his ownership. He’s still the top play, but I like pivoting off of him for GPP’s. One such pivot is staying within Navi and going to Electronic. His ownership is always fairly low as he stands in S1mple’s shadow, but he can put up big numbers when he’s on.
One place I won’t be pivoting is Device. This is not the same player in terms of DFS potential as the Astralis Device. Likely a combination of NiP’s system and Device being new to the team, his FP/r numbers are way down of late. I really don’t like anyone from NiP at captain. They spread their fantasy points out too much and often score poorly even in wins.
I do like both oBo and Michu on the other side of that matchup. They have big time upside and Brehze should still soak up a bit of the captain ownership, keeping theirs lower. Cerq is also worth a look if you MME.
Lastly, from Faze I’m interested in Broky or Twistzz at captain. If pricing was a bit tighter I’d have some interest in Olof, but you don’t really need the extreme savings he provides at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!