T1 CSGO is back on Tuesday, but unfortunately only for a 2 game slate. DK has decided to raise their prize pool for this one, making the main $10 a $30k prizepool, $10k to 1st, 105 max entry tournament. I’d expect to see more high volume players from other sports than usual with the $10k up top, and I’d expect to need to take a few more risks than normal if you want to take down 1st place without splitting with 30 other people. Anyhow lock is at 9:30 am EDT and the games are:

Gambit (80% implied win probability) vs EG

NiP (56% implied win probability) vs Complexity

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Tarik and Nawwk are in the player pool but not on the active rosters anymore, don’t play them. Everyone else is correct and none of these teams sub. The HLTV page does technically list the 5th player of NiP as undetermined, but as far as I know LNZ is still playing with the main team and ztr is down with the Young Ninjas. I will update if I see anything indicating to the contrary.

Slate Analysis

This is a very boring DFS slate and also almost an identical slate to when Gambit played EG on Friday and the other game was a coinflip. On that slate, 4 of the top 6 players in terms of ownership were from Gambit. Zywoo and Jame, replaced Tuesday by Device and BlameF, were the other 2 in the top 6. Interz was the only player outside of the top 6 for Gambit, and he was all the way down at 16th on the slate (out of 20). EG made up 5 out of the bottom 6 in terms of ownership with oBo just edging out Interz.

I’d expect basically the same thing Tuesday. Pricing is super loose in the NiP/Col game, which means you can easily fit 3 of the top 4 players from Gambit. Interz of course was in the winning lineup on Friday, but I still don’t think that will raise his ownership a ton. If you want to be different when you play Gambit, Interz is your path to doing that. Hobbit also came in at half the ownership of Sh1ro and Ax1le, and pricing is set up almost exactly the same. He’s another way to get Gambit exposure with somewhat low ownership (he was still 6th on the slate, so it’s all relative).

The 10 and 11 rounds EG won are honestly probably closer scorelines than the games actually were. Gambit were clearly the better team from start to finish. I’d expect EG’s ownership to decrease even further. However, I do think rematching this immediately gives EG a bit of a boost. Think about division rivals in the NFL, beating a team for the 2nd time often isn’t easy. I’ll still likely end up over the field on EG players.

I think a lot of people are going to run 3/2/1 on this slate. The common build will likely be a 3 stack of Gambit with a 2/1 from the Nip/Col game. I’m going to run a bunch of the opposite, a 3 stack from either NiP or Col and then a 2/1 of Gambit/EG. I think this is the best way to create somewhat unique lineups on Tuesday.

As for the NiP/Col game itself, I am going to split my exposure roughly down the middle. I have no idea who is going to win this game, as both teams have been very inconsistent lately. There are a couple of interesting stats/places we may be able to exploit coming out of this game though. Who do you think Col’s 2nd best fantasy player has been over the last month? BlameF is number 1. If you answered K0nfig, good guess but wrong. If you answered Poizon, also a decent guess, but also wrong. If you answered Rush…you must not have seen Complexity play. That leaves of course jks. That’s right, jks has claimed the title of 2nd most FP/r over the past month. Part of that is the relative struggles of K0nfig and Poizon, but jks kills per round have been steadily increasing while his deaths are staying relatively stagnant, which is rapidly raising his FP/r. His rise seems to have at least somewhat coincided with BlameF not scoring as well in terms of FP/r, as he’s now under .7 FP/r both over the past 3 months and past month. He always used to be up near .8 FP/r. jks did previously lurk quite a bit, and if he’s doing that more now (previously BlameF’s role for Col) it could explain the changes. Lurkers often get “free” kills to pad their DFS stats.

On the other side, it hasn’t been Device as the top FP/r player for NiP over the past month, it’s been Rez. Now it’s only by .01 FP/r so it’s effectively tied, but Device’s FP/r numbers as a whole are well down from his Astralis days. It seems more like NiP have slotted him into Nawwk’s role than given him the star role he had for Astralis. The other player I wanted to talk about for NiP is LNZ. His stats since he joined the main team have been bad, but he’s only played a handful of maps, so his 3 month and even 1 month stats still reflect his decent stats for Young Ninjas. I am manually manipulating his projection down by 30% because of the increase in competition. That number is admittedly arbitrary, but it feels about right based on how his first few matches have gone. I’d expect him to project decently around the industry because of the aforementioned decent stats, I will definitely be intentionally under the field here.

Top Captains

With BlameF and Device both trending downward in FP/r, there are only 3 players on the slate over .7 FP/r. They are of course the Gambit big 3 of Sh1ro, Hobbit, and Ax1le. Hobbit has disappointed on DK slates lately while Ax1le has popped off, and Ax1le is over $1k cheaper (flex pricing). Still, one of these days will be Hobbit day and I intend to be over the field on him when that day happens. I like him a lot at captain on this slate. Sh1ro and Ax1le are of course also top plays.

For EG, it’s the oBo and Michu show. Brehze has fallen off a cliff, likely because of swapping roles, so I’m not interested at all in him at captain. Cerq is mildly interesting as he’s shown signs of life lately, but his overall kill and particularly assist numbers are low, I likely won’t have much at captain. I’ll stick with the stud riflers if I go EG captain.

From NiP, Device is still the clear top captain even if he doesn’t have the best 1 month stats. Rez is also worth a shot particularly in the big $10. Everyone in this game outside of Device and BlameF should have low captain ownership.

On the Col side, BlameF is always a decent option, but with his numbers dipping I actually prefer other players on Col. jks is an interesting option to save some salary. Poizon has been slumping for a while now, but can break out at any time. K0nfig is probably my favorite play though. He’s as much of an “ignore the stats” guy as you can get in CS. He randomly gets hot and cold, hotter than almost anyone and colder than any big name player. Right now he’s kind of in the middle, having just bounced back from a bit of a cold streak, but not all the way back to hot. However, he can catch fire at any moment, especially when Col has had some time off to practice. I’ll be over the field here just in case this is the game he catches fire.

That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!

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