We’re back to T3 (or lower) CounterStrike on Monday, however, we do get a 4 game slate. Most of these teams are at least fairly familiar if you’ve been playing T3 slates lately. Lock is at 9am EDT, and the games are:
Copenhagen Flames (83% implied win probability) vs Ambush
Anonymo (85%) vs Onyx
Galaxy Race (54%) vs Budapest 5
Lyngsby Vikings (78%) vs Iberian Family
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
As recent T3 slates have shown, anything can happen with these T3 teams. Especially this time of year, when it’s exam season for players who are still in school. At these lower levels, these are likely players who will need to get “real” jobs at some point so CSGO isn’t always the top priority, and you really can’t blame them. I’ll do my best to be checking twitters and HLTV before lock to see if there are any subs. As it stands, the rosters appear to be correct and none of the teams carry a full time 6th man. Nono2k has recently subbed twice for Ambush, the first time one map for Sonesb and then 2nd time an entire series for Wasink (which was announced ahead of time), they’re the team I’d keep the closest eye on.
While I wouldn’t call myself an “expert” on T3-5 European CSGO, I do think that some of these lines are simply too big. These teams are inherently inconsistent and seeing 80+ percent win probabilities feels wrong. Particularly the Onyx vs Anonymo line. Jr and Bondik have both played for teams as good if not better than the level Anonymo is at within the last year, and Impulse also appears to be a solid player. 85/15 feels way too extreme of a line for this matchup.
Ambush and Iberian Family (formerly Caronte) also feel like too big of underdogs given the unpredictable nature of low tier CS. I’ll definitely be over the field on pretty much all the underdogs on this slate, as I typically am.
The other key to slates like this is solid lineup building fundamentals. Even the “big” $10 only has 1,764 entries. No one person can have more than 52. The likelihood you’re going to need to hit that perfect 1-1-1-1-1-1 to win is extremely low. Instead, focus on minimizing the number of correct outcomes you need to hit a successful lineup without totally capping your upside (which I think 3/3 caps upside too much on a 4 game slate). This means running 3/2/1 or 2/2/2. I actually exclusively run 3/2/1 on 4 game Bo3 slates because the “1” you can even get the game “wrong” but still have a player score well in a loss, which is of course much easier than needing 2 players to score well in a loss. That said a lot of players whose game I respect run 2/2/2 and I have no problem with it on 4 game slates. With how small tournaments are now any lineup that needs 4 different correct outcomes seems too thin to me. Sure you get a few more points of upside if everything breaks perfectly for you, but your likelihood of everything breaking perfectly goes down by a ton. If you needed to beat 100k lineups in a Milly Maker, sure, go for a lineup without any stacks, but you simply don’t have to do that in the current state of CSGO.
Also, don’t play opponents in the same lineup. There’s no need to do it on 4 game slates and again you’re making it so much harder for your lineup to have everything go right.
Anyways, back to Monday’s actual slate. Pricing is actually surprisingly tight, so value is going to be important. There are a couple of teams that have mispricing within the team. Joel has actually just barely been Galaxy Racer’s top DFS scorer over both the past 3 months and 1 month, edging out Plessen by .02 FP/r in both instances, yet is priced as the 3rd fragger.
Similarly, Impulse has been the top guy for Onyx, even after Jr and Bondik joined the team, and is also priced 3rd. Other than that there aren’t any glaring mispricings, so I’m going use underdogs and/or to lean towards using bottom fraggers in my 3 stacks to save money and hope they get their thru RNP and sweep bonuses.
Roej comes into the slate as my top captain. He also costs 10k (flex) so it’s not exactly easy to fit him. Teammate Nicodooz comes at a bit of a discount, at 9k in the flex, I like him as well.
Raalz and Daffu for Lingsby Vikings are solid captains, and if you can stomach Kei’s massive pricetag he is the top fragger on Anonymo.
I already mentioned Joel from Galaxy Racer as being too cheap, and while his FP/r is much lower than some of these other guys, he is the top fragger on a favorite for only $6.8k in the flex, I like him at captain.
The underdogs are where captain gets interesting. SunPayus isn’t cheap, but his numbers are off the charts. He leads the slate with a great .88 FP/r over the past 3 months. He’s .09 ahead of Roej in 2nd, and .21(!!) ahead of 3rd place (Impulse from Onyx). His 1 month numbers are even better, as he’s all the way up to .96 FP/r. He hard carries Iberian Family and makes for a great captain, either in a stack or as a one-off. It’s very possible that he scores 80+ in a 3 map loss while no one else on his team does much. And if they win he’s likely to have put up huge numbers.
I meantioned Impulse was 3rd on the slate in FP/r over 3 months, well he’s even better since Jr and Bondik joined the team. He’s up to 2nd on the slate in FP/r. Of course, Onyx only have a 15% chance to win according to the Vegas line, but I think that number should be more like 25-30%. I won’t go nuts here, but I do like Impulse at captain on this slate.
Gringo has been the best player for Ambush, and has really picked it up lately in particular. If I go any Ambush captain I’m likely to go with him, although they are the team that I think is actually the biggest underdog so I’m unlikely to go there too much.
Lastly, Budapest 5 are frustratingly balanced in DFS scoring. All 5 players are between .61 and .48 FP/r over the past 3 months. Fleav would be my top play if I need to go with a B5 captain, but I’m more likely to stack these guys in the flex than I am to play them at captain. I will say Coolio offers a ton of savings and let’s you fit a lot of studs around him, I don’t mind him at captain.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!