IEM Summer continues on Saturday, with a slate that’s just about as good as it can get for a 2 gamer. All 4 teams have some fantasy studs and it should be some great CS being played. Lock is at 10:45 am EDT again and the games are:
Vitality (51% implied win probability) vs OG
Gambit (60%) vs G2
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No subs, no recent roster changes, player pool looks good.
This is an interesting slate because we have two teams, Vitality and G2, where we have a play in particular where we need to decide “are the recent stats real?”.
For G2, that player is Amanek. He’s raised his FP/r a ton recently, his 3 month FP/r is only .45, while his one month FP/r is up at .60, and remember that that 3 month number includes the one month number. Looking at the 3 month stats he’s a pretty bad play, but if you look at the 1 month stats he suddenly looks like a great play. So what changed that made Amanek suddenly take a massive leap in FP/r and will it be sustainable?
Fortunately, this is an easy answer for Amanek, because in his case the change is glaringly obvious. He took over as the full time AWPer. He now looks comfortable in the role and should be able to maintain similar FP/r moving forward. In this case I’m ready to throw out the 3 month stats and focus on the 1 month stats. As an aside, Niko also took back over the title of top DFS player on the team when he returned to rifling. Hunter had surpassed him while Niko was trying out the AWP, but Niko is back in his rightful place now.
The player on Vitality is of course Misutaaa. He’s averaging .52 FP/r over the past 3 months and has brought that number all the way up to .74 FP/r over the past month. In this scenario, it’s less clear what, if any changes have been made that are allowing him to succeed like he is. It does seem like Vitality as a whole have turned a corner with this new roster, even Kyojin looks pretty good all of a sudden. Misutaaa is a young player who was deemed a rising star when Vitality signed him. He seems to have come into his own for this version of the team, and is clearly thriving in the position he’s in now. I think he might be due for a liiitle bit of regression, but overall I also think these improvements in his numbers are also real, and I’m going to focus on his one month numbers.
What this means for DFS is that both Amanek and Misutaaa are guys I want to be over the field on. Amanek is a bit tough because there’s still 2 clearly better plays but he could be used as a salary saver and is the clear number 3 in 3 stacks. Misutaaa on the other hand, is definitely the number 2 guy for Vitality now. To the field’s credit, he was the 2nd highest owned player on Vitality on Friday, but it wasn’t by much over Apex. He should be well above the rest of Vitality in terms of ownership and I think we have at least a few more slates where we can take advantage of that. He’ll be in all my Vitality 3 stacks and most of the 2 stacks.
Of course, Gambit and OG are also on this slate. I expect Gambit to come in with high ownership as they are the bigger favorite and they have 3 clear fantasy studs. Hobbit also comes in with the lowest ownership of the 3, so I like playing him the best.
OG are also fairly straightforward. Mantuu and Valde are the top fraggers, FlameZ is number 3 with upside to be number 1 when he’s on, and AleksiB has taken over the number 4 spot leaving niko in 5th. Aleksi is only .05 FP/r behind FlameZ over the past month, so I like him as what should be a lower owned part of OG stacks. FlameZ 3 month numbers are still slightly inflated from playing in T3, so I’d focus more on his .63 FP/r over the past month, which is respectable but not elite, instead of his .7 FP/r over the past 3 months.
There are a ton of viable captain options for this slate given that it’s only 3 games. I normally consider an FP/r of .70 or higher to be “elite” and there are 8!! players plus Hunter at .69 on this slate. That’s almost half the slate putting up elite fantasy numbers lately. Those players are (in order of FP/r over the past month):
Those 9 players are going to make up my captain pool for the slate. There’s enough cheap players that I’m not really interested in going below them. Of that list, Hobbit and Misutaaa stand out as likely to have low ownership, but really it’s only probably going to be Zywoo, Sh1ro, and maybe Ax1le with “high” captain ownership. I’ll have a smattering of all these players on Saturday.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!