IEM Summer is finally back on Friday. We’re finally back to teams that won’t randomly have their coach and a player they kicked last week sub in last minute. The slate locks at 10:45 am EDT and the games are:
Virtus Pro (52% implied win probability) vs Vitality
Gambit (77%) vs EG
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No subs, no recent roster changes, player pool looks good.
Typically what we see on 2 game slates like this, where one game is a coinflip and the other has one-sided odds, is that people lock in the big favorite and then split their ownership on the other game. I’d expect nothing different here. Gambit should come in with the highest ownership and then VP will have maybe a little more overall than Vitality although I expect Zywoo to be highest owned from the game.
I actually think Vitality should be slight favorites, so I’ll definitely be over the field on them. They seem to have turned a corner recently, and VP, Yekindar in particular, have been struggling. Speaking of Yekindar, if you run 3/2/1, I don’t like Yekindar at all as a one-off. The reason is he’s so crucial to VP’s success. If he’s getting entries, VP are winning rounds and I want a VP stack.
The real question for me on this slate is can EG compete with Gambit? I think the answer is yes. Gambit will probably win, but I do think EG is live here. I also like playing EG because people haven’t adapted to the new lineup yet. oBo and Michu are the riflers to target here, not Brehze anymore. His numbers are horrible since Michu joined the team. I don’t know exactly what’s gone on behind the scenes but I’d assume he’s shifted his role leading to his poor kill and really bad death numbers. I like Cerq as the 3rd in an EG 3-stack.
If you do play Gambit, expect Axile to be the mega-chalk. He’s been great lately, and is too cheap. I think this is chalk you have to eat though (if playing Gambit), as it’s really tough to get away from playing him.
Whenever Zywoo is on a slate and S1mple isn’t, Zywoo is the top captain choice. He might not even have crazy ownership as people prioritize the “safety” of Gambit’s top players. I love Zywoo in this spot.
On the VP side of that matchup, it’s Jame or Yekindar at captain. They are far and away the top scorers when VP wins, so even though Yekindar has been struggling by stacking VP you are in many ways already betting that he plays well so in that case I like him at captain.
For Gambit, I again expect Axile to have a lot of ownership, Sh1ro will likely have a decent amount, and Hobbit will go almost entirely overlooked. That makes me like Hobbit a lot.
Lastly, for EG I like oBo or Michu. It’s a new era for EG and these are their studs now.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!