Draftkings has switched things up on Thursday, giving us a Republeague slate. It’s still a 2-gamer, but the teams on it are solid and it should be a fun slate. Lock is at 8:00 am EST, and the games are:

Forze (70% implied win probability) vs Young Ninjas

Entropiq (68% implied win probability) vs Sinners

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Young Ninjas have benched Mann3n, don’t play him. Everything else looks correct.

Slate Analysis

Another T3 slate, another slate of me telling you to play the underdogs. They always go underowned, and this will be no exception. Based on the Vegas odds, there’s only a just under 48% chance that both favorites win Thursday. That’s right, it’s more likely than not that at least one underdog wins. Of course, determining which (or both) underdog isn’t easy so most people default to double favorite. I expect this to be especially true in the Sinners/Entropic game where pricing is more or less even. I’ll be well above the field on both underdogs.

Speaking of the underdogs, our old pal Ztr is back playing for Young Ninjas. He’s priced down at the very bottom of the slate (besides Mann3n, who isn’t playing), and while he deserved that in T1, he doesn’t now that he’s back in T3. In his first game back with Young Ninjas, he went positive on all 3 maps played. I’m boosting his recent stats (and therefore projection) by a full 50% personally. Granted, his FP/r were so low that he still doesn’t project that well, but make no mistake he is better (in T3) than what his projections will tell you.

If you want to stack favorites, like always on a 2 game slate, one of the best ways you can be different is to leave money on the table. The winning lineup on Wednesday went “down” from Snax to Kylar, was only entered twice despite being a 3/3 of 2 big favorites, and won the tournament.

Top Captains

I’m looking for raw points in my captain slot. For Forze, Fl1t and Zorte are the best options, but I don’t mind Jerry either.

For Young Ninjas, it’s been phzy and nilo lately, although with Ztr back down on the junior squad he is worth a look, particularly if you want to play expensive players from the other game.

On Entropiq, El1an is the pretty clear top fragger, with Forester trailing him and then Krad behind Forester.

Lastly, Oskar and Neofrag are far and away the best options for Sinners. I’m more likely to go deeper down the roster on the favorites for my captain slots, as the ownership will naturally be lower on the underdogs.

That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!

 

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