Tier 1 CS is back on Friday, with a 2 game slate from Dreamhack Masters. Lock is at 10:45 am EST, and the games are:
G2 (57% implied win probability) vs Astralis
Navi (63%) vs Furia
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
DK for whatever reason has decided to go nuts with their player pool and include a bunch of players who won’t be playing. KennyS hasn’t been on G2 for months, don’t play him. Honda and Flamie are at least technically still on Furia and Navi respectively, but neither is going to play Friday barring some unforeseen circumstance, don’t play them. B1t and Bubzkji are playing despite their “Q” tags.
I won’t lie to you guys, I’m pretty tired of these 2 game slates. It’s hard to be unique without making bad lineups, or at the very least extremely low probability lineups. I do think Navi (or Vitality) slates offer a somewhat unique opportunity, which is to captain S1mple and run it back with 2 Furia players. The scenario you’re looking for there is a 3 map series where S1mple tries to carry Navi and puts up 80+ while all his teammates are under 50, meanwhile, Furia will have 2+ players outscore Navi’s 2nd place players. It’s not a super difficult to imagine scenario.
Of course, you can do crazy things like fade S1mple in a Navi lineup, which I do like a tiny bit better now that B1t is playing full-time, but that’s a thin play. It’s very unlikely Navi wins without S1mple playing well, and pricing isn’t tight enough that Boombl4 slightly out point/dollar-ing S1mple will matter if S1mple scores 20 more raw points.
As always on these 2 gamers, you can get unique in GPP’s by going double-dogs. Per the odds, there’s a roughly 16% chance both underdogs win, and it will likely be a small percentage of the field that stack both underdogs.
When he’s on his game, no one on this slate can outscore S1mple on a regular basis, and he’s almost always on his game. Hunter and Niko definitely CAN outscore a S1mple who’s playing well, but aren’t super likely to. There’s a few scenarios where I’d expect someone other than S1mple could be the optimal captain.
Scenario 1: Furia wins (easily) – If you build a lineup for this scenario, I like Kscerato, arT, or players from G2/Astralis
Scenario 2: Navi dominates – This one may sound a bit odd, but a lot of times when a team dominates, the star doesn’t have that huge of a game, simply because they don’t have to. In this case, Electronic or B1t are good captains (or someone from the other game), and should have super low ownership.
Scenario 3: Lots of overtimes in G2/Astralis – With how the scoring is set up, the best players (or one’s who are having the best day at least), typically benefit from playing more rounds. Overtimes or even just a 3 map series + a quick Navi sweep could put the top G2/Astralis players over the top. I already mentioned I like Hunter and Niko from G2, from Astralis I like Dupreeh, Magisk, or Bubzkji. It’s still slightly unclear who will end up the top fantasy performer on this new look roster, but those are the 3 most talented fraggers at this stage of their careers.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!