We have another Spring Sweet Spring slate on Wednesday. It’s another 2 gamer, this time though lock is at 6:00 am EST. The games are:
EPG Family (63% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Furia (61%) vs ForZe
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Unfortunately El1an isn’t in the player pool. He was feeling under the weather Monday and deko subbed in for him. He’s now back and will be playing his normal role. He played on Tuesday and per their coach on Twitter will be playing Wednesday. This is extra unfortunate because he’s their best player. DO NOT play Deko.
None of the other teams sub* and the rest of the player pool is correct.
*Honda is technically still on the roster, but Furia haven’t played him since Junior got to Europe.
The lack of El1an makes this a very weird slate. The best player on the biggest favorite isn’t on the slate. I imagine that’s going to push a lot of to Fnatic, but the question is should it? In the actual match, EPG Family are still pretty decent sized favorites, and just because El1an won’t be getting any DK points doesn’t mean he won’t be crushing Fnatic in the server. I will say, it does make me like running a 2-1 with a Fnatic one-off more, as the top Fnatic fragger only has to outscore the 4th place play on EPG (assuming El1an is a top 3 player on the day).
The problem is which Fnatic player will be the top fragger? Switching Jackinho to AWP and JW to rifle is in my opinion and improvement for both players. JW is a sneaky player, his aim isn’t that great though (lately at least). On the AWP that means he often misses his first shot and then the enemy has plenty of time to react and kill him. On the rifle though, he can spray several shots before the enemy has a chance to react, and get the kill even if he doesn’t hit a clean headshot. Meanwhile Jackinho is a much better AWP than rifler. Of course, Krimz and Brollan are also still there. I’d be okay with any of those 4 as a one-off, or in stacks if you choose to go that route.
In the other game, Furia seemed to have corrected the issues that were plaguing them. They did drop a map to Sinners, but I’d chalk that up to a lack of focus more than anything, they came back and stomped map 3. forZe have shown they can compete with the big boys though, so they’re definitely in play here. Much like Tuesday, I think our biggest edge is fading Junior. He’s simply not involved enough to put up consistent fantasy numbers. Tuesday was a perfect example. Furia played 73 rounds of CS against Sinners. Junior went 36-38. He barely was involved in 1 kill OR death per round, which seems like it should be impossible given his role as the AWPer. I’ve never seen a more passive AWP. And to be clear I’m not blaming that on Junior the player, it’s simply the role he has for Furia, and it’s worked fairly well for them so far so I don’t see it suddenly changing on Wednesday.
With El1an not on the slate, the best captain option for EPG is gone. Of the remaining players, Lack1 is my preferred captain, with Forester also worth a look. These guys will have inflated ownership since El1an isn’t on the slate, but it shouldn’t be that crazy as I imagine many people will go to the other game/Fnatic.
For Fnatic, Krimz is still my favorite captain, but Jackinho is close behind him. JW is even worth a look, as like I said rifling suits him better than AWPing at this point in his career.
On the Furia side, Kscerato is still my top captain choice. arT is probably my number 2, as when Furia dominates he can put up some huge numbers on the back of all his entry frags (and occasional entry 4k’s).
forZe are probably the easiest team to pick a captain from, as Fl1t and zorte are by far the top choices, however do keep in mind that that could lead to inflated captain ownership relative to total ownership. What I mean by that, is even if Fl1t is only 30% owned, he might be 10% at captain, a much higher number than you’d normally expect from someone who is 30% owned overall.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!