Sadly, Draftkings appears to be committed to cutting the early game(s) off of these slates, so we are left with another 2 gamer on Tuesday. Lock is at 8:45 am EDT again, and the games are:
Spirit (70% implied win probability) vs forZe
Furia (70%) vs Sinners
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
No roster changes, no subs*, player pool is correct.
*Furia technically has Honda on the roster still but he hasn’t played since Junior joined the team.
I was a bit surprised to see the exact same odds for both of these games. I expected forZe to be smaller underdogs than they are against Spirit and for Sinners to be bigger underdogs than they are against Furia. I do expect that more ownership is going to go to forZe than it will to Sinners either way, as people are more familiar with forZe as they’ve been on a ton of slates lately.
Even with the 2 game slate and fairly lopsided odds, there are a couple places I think we can get an edge.
The first place is Junior. Of all players on the slate, Junior has the lowest FP/r over the past 3 month, lowest FP/r over the past month, lowest kills/r over the past 3 months, and you guessed it, lowest kills per round over the past month. I’ve said it a bunch of time that Furia have been on the slate, but it’s not because of him as a player, it’s simply the role he’s in for Furia. He’s playing almost a support AWPing role on the T side, and even on CT side he’s not nearly as aggressive as arT and others. He just doesn’t usually get enough opportunities to put up big fantasy games. I expect him to be chalky Tuesday, he’s the cheapest player on either favorite, but I think we can get an edge by fading him.
Sdy is the 2nd place I think we can get an edge. I imagine most of the attention will be on Degster and Mir, they are the two stars after all. Then for the 3rd in a stack people will likely drop all the way down to Magixx or Chopper. However, sdy has quietly been very good lately. He only trails Mir by .02 fp/r over the past month (386 round sample size). Over the past 3 months he’s only behind Kscerato from Furia. I’m going to make it a priority to fit him in my lineups.
Part of how I’ll fit him, with Mir and Degster, is by playing Sinners. Like I said, I expect them to have the lowest ownership on the slate, but they are a solid team. Furia got hot during Dreamhack, but before that they had really been struggling. I do think this is winnable for Sinners. Neofrag and Oskar are actually 1-2 on the slate in FP/r over the past 3 months. Of course, that was almost exclusively against worse competition than Furia, but the upside is certainly there.
I just mentioned how Neofrag and Oskar lead the slate in FP/r, and since I like Sinners, I like them a lot at captain. I’d lean ever so slightly towards Oskar, as even though he’s slightly lower than Neofrag in FP/r, he has more 4ks + aces over the past 3 months, so I like his chances of truly going nuclear better.
Degster and Mir are of course also solid captain options. I also don’t mind sdy if you don’t have the salary to fit Degster or Mir. I’d probably only do this in Spirit + Furia lineups though, as sdy is in the same price range as Neofrag and Oskar, both of whom I like better.
If you go forZe, Fl1t or Zorte are the captains of choice.
Kscerato has separated himself from the pack a bit for Furia, I like him at captain if you choose to go with Furia stacks.
Good luck on Tuesday!