After a great week or T1 slates that were pretty much all 3 games or more, we’re back to a 2 game T3 slate. Fortunately, it’s a pretty good slate as the teams are familiar and the matchups should be close. Lock is listed as 8:45 (DK is back to cutting off the early game of the day so it could theoretically move, although they haven’t been pushing it back lately), and the games are:
Extremum (59% implied win probability) vs AGO
forZe (51%) vs K23
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams have made super recent roster changes. None of them usually sub. AGO does technically have a 6th man, and he did play in place of Fiku for a series on April 28th (not series against Dig that was actually on a DK slate), but the manager tweeted that that sub was specifically for just the one series. Fiku likely had something he had to do that caused him to miss the series as he’s played all the series since then without subbing. I’m playing it as if there’s no risk, just wanted to make sure everyone is aware. They do play the early game so hopefully any news would come out before lock.
None of the other teams sub.
If you haven’t played many T3 slates lately, Extremum is last year’s 100T squad with BnTet instead of jks.
Both these games are rematches of recent games. On April 27th, Extremum beat AGO 2-0. However, both maps were 16-13, so it very easily could’ve gone the other way. Similarly, k23 just edged out forZe on April 29th, 2-1. Again, all 3 maps were close. forZe won 16-14 and k23 won 19-16 and 16-14. Again, this could’ve easily gone either way.
I’m looking at both these games as complete coinflips. I expect ownership to be fairly even from forZe and k23, although that 51/49 makes a bigger difference than it should, but I do expect ownership to tilt towards Extremum in the other game. I’ll be on both “underdogs” but AGO is my favorite team to stack.
I’ll be stack double-dog quite a bit. Per the odds, both underdogs will win ~20% of the time here, while both favorites with win ~30% of the time. However, I expect less than 20% of the field to stack double-dogs and more than 30% to stack double-favorites. I want to be on the double-dogs side of that.
Snatchie has been a big letdown seemingly every time he’s on a DK slate despite his stellar numbers, will this finally be the slate he goes off? I’m hoping the answer to that is yes, as I like him a lot at captain. I also like norbert a lot, and mou if you want to go mid range.
When I play the favorites, I like Fl1t at captain from forZe, and jkaem from Extremum. It’s worth noting that Extremum are fairly balanced, as Jkaem scores easily the lowest FP/r for the top player from any of these 4 teams.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!