Thursday bring us another Flashpoint slate, this time a 3 gamer. Lock is still at noon, and the games are:
Complexity (66% implied win probability) vs Sprout
G2 (55%) vs Mouz
Heroic (67%) vs NiP
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
We have some extra players in the pool again. Nawwk, KennyS, and ChrisJ are all in the pool, don’t play them. No sub risk, although Sprout does technically have a 6 man roster. They never play their 6th.
Pricing has tightened up a bit on this slate, meaning we’ll have some interesting choices to make. I’ll start with the first one that I expect to be chalk. That’s Poizon. Poizon has been BAD lately. Over the past month, the only players he’s been better than on the slate are Jackz, Rush, and ztr. He’s slightly better over 3 months, but still not very good. We’ve all seen Poizon dominate and know what he’s capable of, but he’s simply not in form. I’m going to avoid him if I can in GPP’s. I do like Col without Poizon quite a bit though. BlameF will have high ownership, but K0nfig will probably be fairly low owned, and jks should have almost no ownership as he’s definitely overpriced. That’s what can make for an interesting GPP play though.
To fit Col with no Poizon, we need to find value somewhere. My favorite spots for that value are Refrezh, who is underpriced as always, Hampus, and Dexter. All 3 of them are cheap and project halfway decently.
Since Heroic always has 2 players who are too cheap, their high priced players always end up underowned. If you can make Teses and Cadian fit in the same lineup, that should be fairly unique. In that lineup you won’t be able to afford Col, so I don’t mind dipping all the way down to Spiidi for value. At only $4k he’s basically free.
There are a lot of fantasy studs on this slate. 6 players score above .7 FP/r over the past 3 months, with another 5 at .67 or higher. That means there are a lot of viable options. I’d expect guys like BlameF, K0nfig, Niko, and Hunter to get a lot of the ownership. I again like Teses and Cadian, as they should come in fairly low owned.
The studs on the underdogs, Ropz, Device, and Faven, all should have decently low ownership, and make for great GPP plays. If any of the dogs upset, their respective superstar has top score of the slate upside with ease.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!