In addition to the 1st ever Valorant slate, we have another nice CSGO 4 gamer from Flashpoint. Lock is again at noon EDT and the games are:

Heroic (70% implied win probability) vs Astralis

Complexity (67%) vs Anonymo

FPX (68%) vs Sprout

NiP (57%) vs BIG

Sub Risk/Roster Changes

Player pool looks good, none of these teams sub.

Slate Analysis

Man back to back slates with Vitality and now Astralis as the biggest underdog. Playing Heroic will do that to you. They’re that good. Granted, Astralis have also been pretty shaky since Dev1ce left. For whatever reason, whoever does the DK pricing won’t just make the whole team between like 7.5k and 9k where they should be, instead they spread them out and leave 2 guys underpriced every single day. Sjuush has taken over from Refrezh as the bottom of the barrel guy, but both are still too cheap. The top end guys do end up underowned, although I don’t think Teses will in this case since he’s priced under Stavn. However, Stavn himself and Cadian will almost definitely end up with fairly low ownership. I like Cadian’s upside better, but both are good GPP plays.

I expect that the dominant performance by FPX over Col will push some hand builders away from Col in this spot. People who plug and play optimizers will likely end up with a bunch of Col still though, so I don’t exactly expect them to be low owned. BlameF and K0nfig are fine plays, but that’s about all that I like there. On the other side, I do think Anonymo are live, although I expect them to be more popular than Sprout, whom I like better (more on that in a sec). Kei is my favorite play but Snax and Kylar are also solid. They’re pricing is a little screwed up as mynio is the bottom fragger but priced as 2nd.

Speaking of Sprout, I expect that FPX’s big win will lead to more hand builders on them, and the optimizers are going to like them too given that they have solid stats and are the 2nd biggest favorites. Zehn and Styko are a bit underpriced relative to their teammates, and I expect both to be pretty popular. However, the one thing I’ve learned about this team over the past year is that while they have the talent to beat any team, they also have the inconsistency to lose to anyone. I like Sprout a lot in tournaments. FaveN is for some reason cheaper than slaxz-, he’s a great way to help fit the expensive Heroic players in a GPP. Sprout are my favorite of the 3 large underdogs (so not counting BIG).

Speaking of BIG, I like them a lot on this slate. I have not been impressed with NiP at all since Dev1ce joined. I hope he can turn it around because he’s young and I want him to be successful, but ztr has been an absolute liability for them. I feel like opening duels (for riflers) is usually a fairly good indication of skill. ztr has won 37% of his opening duels over the past 3 months, I can’t remember ever seeing a number that low. That said, BIG haven’t exactly been lighting it up themselves. Xantares has been playing well though, and he’s pretty cheap. I like him and Device as one-off’s from this game mostly, although in MME I’d definitely have a few stacks from each.

Top Captains

Teses has been on fire lately, and he’s only $8k as a big favorite. I think he’s a great play at captain. You can also go down to Refrezh and Sjuush to get decent upside for cheap on the biggest favorite on the slate. I like that better for cash though as I don’t see either of those guys hitting crazy scores all that often (although both definitely have that in them).

I also like Faven, Xantares, Device, Zehn, BlameF, and K0nfig. There’s enough value that I don’t really feel like I need to drop below these guys at captain, and honestly a few of them are pretty cheap anyways.

That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!

 

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