Flashpoint continues on Friday, with yet another 2 game slate. Lock is still at noon EDT and the games are:
Vitality (61% implied win probability) vs FPX
Heroic (61%) vs Complexity
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
RpK and Nivera are in the player pool. Don’t play them. Everything else looks correct, none of these teams sub anymore.
Vitality have struggled for much of 2021, but it definitely hasn’t been Zywoo’s fault. If anything, he’s been even better than ever while his team around him struggles mightily. Zywoo averages more than DOUBLE the 2nd best player on the team (Shox) in FP/r over both the past 3 months and past month. Now, part of that are because his numbers are truly insane, he’s up to 1.05 FP/r over the past month, which is as high as I can ever remember seeing. The other part is how bad the rest of his team is, his teammates rank 20th, 18th, 17th, and 15th on the slate (there are 20 players on the slate) in FP/r over the past 3 months. Play Zywoo.
Now, what you do with the rest of that game is interesting. Pricing on the slate is very loose, so you’re really just looking for who is going to score the most raw points. Guys like Farlig and Zehn are definitely underpriced, but it doesn’t really matter because pricing is loose. All 4 of the non-emi FPX players score with .1 FP/r of each other over the past 3 months. Maden is ever so slightly in the lead, while Zehn narrowly leads Maden in the 1-month numbers. I think Maden and Styko will likely have lower ownership, so I’m most interested in the two of them from FPX.
If I play non-Zywoo Vitality I’d probably go Shox as my first choice and then Misutaaa and then Apex. Kyojin has looked truly lost so far, but I suppose he at least has a chance to rapidly turn it around as he adjusts to playing T1 CS. I’d only touch him in MME.
In the other game, Col have come crashing down to earth after looking great when Poizon returned. Poizon himself has been a large part of the struggle, he’s averaging only .43 FP/r over the past month, 16th on the slate. It’s been K0nfig and BlameF doing their best to carry the team lately. K0nfig has most recently been on one of his cold streaks, although he showed signs of breaking out of the slump against Fnatic in their last series.
Meanwhile, Heroic struggled against G2 on Thursday. Really it was Teses who struggled. I mentioned in Thursday’s article that his 1-month numbers were insane and there was likely some regression due, I just didn’t expect it to come all at once. He went from averaging .90 FP/r over the past month all the way down to .70 FP/r. The nice thing is that the final games before the roster change fell out of Heroic’s 3 month stats, so now the 3 month numbers just reflect the new roster. Everyone on the team is between .67 FP/r (Cadian) and .60 FP/r (Refrezh) since making the swap. As usual, Refrezh is way too cheap. So is Sjuush. I expect Cadian and Teses to go slightly overlooked, as even though pricing is loose you still need some value, and I think people with play Zywoo and Col studs more than they will Cadian and Teses.
On a general strategy note, I expect a lot of people to either 3 stack Col or 3 stack Heroic here, seeing as a ton of people will be running a 2-1 from the other game. I’m actually ok with running a 2-1, 2-1 on this slate because of Zywoo.
Zywoo is far and away the top captain here. There’s plenty of savings to make room for his salary, and he should continue to put up mind-blowing numbers. If you insist on trying to leverage off him in GPP’s, K0nfig, BlameF, and I guess Cadian and Teses can all reach at least close to his ceiling if everything breaks right.
I don’t hate going FPX captain in the hopes that they sweep and Zywoo struggles a bit. I’d go Zehn first then Maden but both Farlig and Styko are also fine options for that scenario.
Pricing is loose enough that I’m only captaining guys I think have a shot at top score of the slate. Some of those guys are cheap, but I’m not playing them for salary I’m playing them for raw points.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!