After a nice 3 game slate on Wednesday, we’re back to a 2-gamer on Thursday. There are 2 good NA games in the evening but they’re not on the slate sadly. Please if at Draftkings happens to read this, give us combined slates now that actual decent teams are playing in NA again. Anyways, lock is at 12 pm EDT and the games are:
Heroic (64% implied win probability) vs G2
NiP (55%) vs FPX
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
KennyS and Nawwk are in the player pool. Don’t play them. Otherwise looks good, none of these teams sub.
Pricing is kind of in the middle, it’s not super tight but it’s also not super loose. As usual, Refrezh is way too cheap, he’ll be chalk. He’s been playing great lately, averaging .8 FP/r (anything over .7 is really good) over the past month. He’s still technically last on the team over 3 months, but his .59 FP/r number would be at worst 3rd (and tied for 1st on FPX) for any other team on the slate. Heroic are simply really good. Teses has also been on fire lately, just trailing Zehn for first on the slate at .9 FP/r over the past month.
This is somewhat of a tangent, but I wanted to take a minute to talk about FP/r over 1 month and how to treat it. There’s really 2 ways to look at it in comparison with 3 month stats. It could either be A) a sign that a change has occurred and this player is now under/over valued (most projections in the industry focus on 3 month stats and most people look at 3 month stats primarily) or, B) this player will soon regress to their mean. In the case of a Refrezh, I think it took him some time to settle into his role on Heroic (or it may have evolved), and he’s likely to continue to perform well, although maybe not quite at the level he has been recently. Teses also could have had his role change in ways we may not notice entirely as viewers, but I find it likely he’s simply been on a “hot” streak and will end up regressing back to his mean a bit.
The opposite example was Dupreeh on Wednesday. Prior to Wednesday, he had been horrible since Dev1ce left, his 1-month stats were last on the team. His 3-month and longer term were of course solid, and this led to him having a lot of ownership Wednesday. He ended up playing well, but this was definitely a potential place we could have taken advantage had he continued primary AWPing (I didn’t get to watch Nuke but Magisk was AWPing on Vertigo). Correctly identifying which scenario a change in stats represents can give us a big edge, particularly on these small slates.
Anyways, back to the slate at hand. Another perfect example of 1 month vs 3 month is Zehn. Zehn has always been a bit hot and cold, but he’s taken it to a whole new level lately. His 3 month FP/r (which of course includes his performances over the past month) are 7th to last on the slate. His 1 month FP/r, like I mentioned above, leads the entire slate. The change in stats coincides with Emi’s return to the team as IGL. I’m inclined to believe he made some changes that have helped Zehn. Sure, Zehn’s stats will likely come back to earth at some point, but I think he’s reestablished himself as the clear top fragger on the team like he was for much of 2020 when they were Godsent.
I’m not a huge believer in this NiP team, even with Dev1ce, and have been a huge believer in the talent of FPX when they have an on Zehn, so I’ll be heavy on FPX here.
If you want to ride the 1 month stats, Teses, Zehn, and Refrezh are the best captain plays. If you want to go a little more by the 3 month, Cadian creeps into the picture.
The unfortunate part about liking FPX and Heroic is the captain situation is much more unclear than G2 and NiP. From those teams I’d look at Dev1ce, Niko, and Hunter at captain. Given that both Zehn and Refrezh are cheap, I won’t really be looking much elsewhere for salary saver captains.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!