Thank to the NiP/Anonymo packet loss debacle, we have a 3 game slate on Wednesday. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT and the games are:
Anonymo (63% implied win probability) vs Hyenas
Astralis (78%) vs DBL Poney
Mouz (55%) vs Big
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
None of these teams sub, ChrisJ is in the player pool for Mouz but won’t be playing. Don’t play him. Playerpool looks good otherwise.
Finally, an EU slate with actual decent teams that isn’t 2 games. It’s been a while, so I’ll mention general strategy first. I run exclusively 3/2/1 on 3 game slates, with no opponents in the same lineup. Given the relatively small contest sizes, it’s just simpler and better to make lineups that way instead of trying to predict narrow outcomes.
Pricing is pretty tight, the favorites are all priced up. I like this as it forces people to make difficult decisions. Usually, people choose to play bottom fraggers on favorites over underdogs. Let’s take a look at the bottom fraggers on favorites and see if there are any spots that are worth playing:
Anonymo: Mynio and Innocent are the bottom fraggers here. Mynio is near the bottom of the slate in FP/r over the past 3 months. He’s roughly the same recently, I don’t really see any reason to play him outside of price. Innocent on the other hand is only .05 FP/r behind Kylar, and not that far away from Snax either. He’s a decent play even beyond the price savings he brings.
Astralis: Glaive and Xypex are the bottom fraggers based on the 3 month FP/r stats and also by price. Glaive has continued to struggle over the past month (which also corresponds to the games played without Dev1ce), but Xyp9x has stepped his game up of late. He’s up to .55 FP/r over the past month since Dev1ce left, which is good for 3rd on the team, and not far behind either Bubzkji or Device. At $7.6k he’s not super cheap, but he’s definitely worth a look here.
Mouz: Dexter and Bymas are the bottom fraggers here. Acor also comes at a fairly cheap price of only $7.0k. Everyone on Mouz has looked better lately, as they’ve been looking good over the past month. Granted, they’ve played some T2/3 teams, but still the performance looks much improved. In particular, Dexter has been playing better. At only $4.6k I love him for cash and single entry and also like him for GPP’s. Bymas is also a fine play, he’s up to a respectable .57 FP/r over the past month, and of course Acor is also a good play.
Before I jump into the underdogs, I did want to make one more point, which is that since Device left and he took over as AWP, Dupreeh is actually last on the team in FP/r. Now, it’s only been 10 maps so it’s certainly small sample size. The question is, is he just a bad AWPer or will his stats normalize back to where they usually are? I’m leaning towards the former but not ruling out the latter. I’d definitely make sure to get a bit of exposure in MME.
Now, the underdogs. I actually like all 3 underdogs a decent amount on this slate. You can basically throw out the stats for Hyenas, they’ve only played 2 maps togther. Aizy and Gade have both been solid players, so I’m not too worried about their poor performance in their debut game. Meanwhile, Kjaerbye looks like he could be in the star role for this team. I’m interested in those 3 in particular for GPP’s here. Anonymo are likely tilted after losing 16-14 (and losing a 5v3 in the last round) to NiP in a rematch that they frankly shouldn’t have had to play, so they may not have their heads entirely in it.
DBL Poney are the team I like the least in terms of their chances to win. But they’ll likely have next to 0 ownership. They did just take down Vitality, showing that they can win against T1 teams. Granted Vitality have looked terrible lately, but it’s not like Astralis have been world-beaters themselves. NBK- is basically free at only $4.0k, and I like afro at only $6.6k as well. I’m more likely to one-off than stack DBL Poney, but I’d have a few 2 stacks if not 3 stacks in MME.
Lastly, Big have been up and down lately. They look great when they play Complexity, and very mediocre when they play anyone else. Last time I checked, Mouz aren’t Complexity, but Big still have a decent shot here. Xantares has been back to his usual self lately, separating himself as the top fantasy play for Big, while Syrson and Xantares are also solid stacking partners.
Ropz is the only true “star” fantasy player on this slate. He’s definitely the top captain, I’m hoping his ownership will be curtailed by the fact that Mouz are only slight favorites.
Outside of Ropz, I like Kei from Anonymo, and I guess Xyp9x from Astralis. Bubz and Magisk are just too expensive for me to want to captain. I also like Acor and Frozen as mid-range options to help fit more studs.
From the underdogs, I like Xantares quite a bit, he’s been great lately and they’re basically in a coinflip per the odds. I also like Kjaerbye, if Hyenas can win here he’s got a shot to put up big numbers. I doubt I’ll captain anyone from DBL Poney, but if I do it’ll be Lucky or afro.
That’s it for me, best of luck Wednesday!