We have another afternoon NA slate. My hope is that once T1 slates are back from EU they’ll start adding the NA slates to the main like they used to. The teams playing in NA aren’t great, but there’s a few decent ones and it doesn’t really matter for DFS. Just give me 3 and 4 game slates (and not the T8 teams that they used Tuesday in EU) instead of 2 gamers all the time. Anyways, the NA games today are:
Godsent (60% implied win probability) vs Bad News Bears
O Plano (72%) vs TeamOne
Sub Risk/Roster Changes
Skullz is still in the player pool for TeamOne. Do NOT play him, he is no longer on the team, xns is and will be playing. Playerpool is otherwise correct, none of these teams sub. I’m not sure why Spongey is listed as Out, I think that’s just a mistake/maybe a remnant from the last time he was one a slate, everything I can find indicates he’s playing.
O Plano may not look familiar, but it’s the roster that was MiBR at the end of 2020, expect Hen1 has replaced trk. Hen1 is finally playing with his brother like he wanted (Lucas1).
Pricing is pretty loose on this slate. O Plano in particular are underpriced, T1 are actually more expensive, even though O Plano are heavy favorites. That’s going to lead to a ton of Godsent/O Plano teams. It makes the underdogs strong GPP plays. I do agree with Vegas the Bad News Bears has the better chance to win, but they’ll also likely have higher ownership. I think most people will build by locking in O Plano and then deciding what to do in the other game. If I MME (if you call 21 entries MME’ing) I’d definitely have a couple Godsent + TeamOne lineups.
Much like Monday, I think TeamOne are the best place to get an edge within a team. What I mean by that is XNS. He technically has the highest FP/r over the past 3 months on the team, but most of the team spent the majority of that time getting crushed in Europe while he was on a strong team in South America. If you look at just the last month data, he’s last on the team in FP/r over the 14 maps they’ve played together, just behind prt. Monday night he was $9.2k and 40% owned. He finished last on the team in fantasy points. The team’s ownership as a whole will obviously be much lower given that they’re big underdogs, but if many people who play T1 play xns again, our T1 teams that don’t have xns will have a big edge.
Jonji is also underpriced for BNB. He won’t be sneaky within people playing BNB by any means, he clearly has the best FP/r over the past 3 months, but he’s a strong play. He does a ton of entry fragging though, meaning if he’s playing well it’s likely to lead to round wins as he’s putting the team in advantageous situations. On the flip side, it makes it less likely he plays well in a loss, so I don’t love him as a one-off. I’d rather play ptr (not to be confused with prt from T1) as a one-off, as he’ll be AWPing and should save plenty if BNB are losing.
Within the 2 favorites, pricing just about makes sense. O Plano has only played 9 maps as a team, so take their projections with a grain of salt. Lucas1 stats are likely fairly elevated (he’s only .01 FP/r behind KNGV over those 9 maps). It is worth noting that both Hen1 and KNGV are primary AWPers. So far, it looks like they’re splitting the AWP role/possibly double AWPing quite a bit (full disclosure I am just getting this from their stats, I haven’t watched any O Plano games) as both have similar numbers of rifle and AWP kills.
Hen1 and vsm are the obvious captains here. Both are fairly cheap, and O Plano are the big favorites. They easily let you fit a Godsent stack with them.
I do think Felps and Dumau are going to go slightly overlooked at captain since they’re more expensive than the O Plano studs. I prefer them to O Plano for that reason.
If we go to the underdogs, I like Jonji a lot at captain. As I mentioned above, he entries a lot so if he’s doing well it’s likely his team is, which makes him perfect for leading a stack as captain. ptr and Swisher are also fine options.
Lastly, I expect Malbsmd to go virtually unowned at captain (I expect T1 to be very low owned overall) given that he’s the most expensive player from that game even though his team only has a 28% implied chance of winning. He’s been great since T1 got back to NA, and I do think this matchup is winnable for them. In my T1 lineups, I like Malbs a lot.
That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday!